Welcome to what we like to call the Ruckus, but only because this segment of the site leads to lively discussion and debate, not because anyone is trying to shake up the world.

In this second installment, editor Jeff Rapp looks at the summer forecast for the Cincinnati Reds with colleague Mike Wachsman, a self-described Reds fan and longtime columnist for the Buckeye Sports Bulletin. Among Wachsman’s many other former and current publication involvements, he is a longtime copyeditor and contributor for Reds Report magazine.

We pick up their discussion on June 13, a day when a loss to the Kansas City Royals left Cincinnati at 36-28 overall but still clinging to first place in the National League’s Central Division.

Rapp: Well, Mike, to my amazement this team has gotten enough pitching, timely hitting, and, dare I say it, correct maneuvers from manager Dusty Baker to look very much like a playoff team to this point in the season.

But that is the key to the statement: to this point. Call me a cynic – it’s OK because I know you’ve called me worse – but I just don’t see how the next 98 games will go as well for this team. Yes, we are basically 2/5 the way through the campaign, but I have my reservations. Then again, I am not nor have I ever been a Reds fan, so maybe I am just skeptical out of habit.

Tell me then, my friend, how it is going to be different this time, how this Cincinnati team stays in the race in 2010.

Wachsman: Ah, silly Rapper – these are not the same Reds you’ve grown used to seeing fold up shop by the beginning of summer. No, this group is in it for the long haul, and one big reason is because the bats have been outstanding.

Having a healthy Scott Rolen has seemingly made all the difference in the world. The guy is 107 but leads the team in homers and RBIs, and he’s hitting over .300. He also brings a veteran presence to the clubhouse, and as someone who’s been in a pennant race or two during his career he knows what it takes to reach the finish line.

Jay Bruce may finally be ready to deliver on the promise he’s shown throughout his rapid ascent to the majors, Brandon Phillips is proving to be a stabilizing force AND a tough out, Joey Votto is getting it done (and is staying on the field) … it’s a real team effort, one that’s leading the NL in most hitting categories.

I also love what they’ve gotten from Orlando Cabrera ... when that pick-up was made I was among the minority who thought it would help, and he’s been a steady fielder at shortstop and a base stealing threat. The Reds as a team are third in the NL in steals and second in homers – so they can play small ball or go big. That’s a dangerous combination, my friend.

Rapp: Well, I am with you on the Rolen-Cabrera combination. Those guys are pros, have been part of winning teams and know how to perform – Rolen as the steady Eddie who is going to do his job every day and Cabrera a little feistier and a little more proven in the clutch.

Frugal moves by the Reds to get those guys and shore up the left side of the infield. I also agree that Votto is a legit talent and that this team is well built for its bandbox of a home park.

But I expected the Reds to put up above-average offensive numbers going into the season. The pitching is where I’d be concerned.

Bronson Arroyo just lost a very winnable game at home against the Royals and was shelled in one of the most important games of the year at St. Louis. His durability is admirable (especially these days) but you never know when he’s about to implode – and I’m expecting an implosion since I just acquired him in a big trade in my fantasy league. But that’s another story.

Homer Bailey is hurt and unreliable and Aaron Harang should have been moved two years ago. Mike Leake has been impressive to this point, but what if opposing teams begin to figure him out? I know Edinson Volquez could be back before the month is out but he’ll be coming off a major injury and a 50-game suspension.

That leaves Johnny Cueto, and as much as I like him as a talent the Reds have no idea if he can really take the mantle of staff ace in a pennant race.

If this team plays loose and free and pulls off some more late-game heroics then it can stay in the race for a while. But I don’t know if that pitching staff is going to hold up – or if the organization would be aggressive about finding help in that area for the second half.

Wachsman: Valid points all, and to be truthful I worry a bit about them as well. But I’m also buoyed by the fact that the pitching staff, by and large, doesn’t walk a lot of guys – just about middle of the pack in that stat. So they aren’t letting batters reach base unchallenged. Where they lack is in power pitching – there really isn’t a strikeout ace on this team – and teams are batting .272 against the staff, which is one of the higher figures in the NL.

But I maintain that most of the issues are with the relief corps, NOT the starters. As you mentioned, Arroyo eats innings (though not sure if that’s great when you’re giving up runs) and Harang can do the same. But those were the guys I expected little from.

I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Leake. I do think he’s for real, and he’ll benefit by being brought along slowly. Cueto is inconsistent but has the ability to look unhittable on a given night, and the way Volquez’s recovery is being portrayed is slightly ahead of schedule. He’s the closest thing to an ace the Reds have, so if he can shake the rust off quickly – and if the Reds are in first place or a game or two out at the All-Star break – then I think they have a really legit shot at the playoffs.

Where they’ve run into problems is transitioning from starter to Francisco Cordero. The bullpen – save for Arthur Rhodes, and I never thought I’d be writing THAT – has been abysmal. Nick Masset, Daniel Herrera and Mike Lincoln have been frightfully bad. They have a young kid in Edwin Del Rosario who has shown promise, and they may be ready to call up some relief arms from the minors. If they can be just a tad aggressive at the trade deadline and acquire a setup arm or two – and Lord knows there are plenty to be had – that would be the last real deficiency the Reds have.

The other thing that I don’t think can be overlooked is how resilient this team has been. They’ve won the second-most one-run games in baseball, and their 5-2 mark in extra innings is also right there among the best. When a team believes it can push through adversity, that’s when it knows that the ingredients are there for a full-season run.

There also haven’t been a lot of losing streaks since April, when they had a four- and five-game dry spell. But that’s when the kinks were being worked out, and they’ve played solid baseball ever since.

Rapp: True, especially the Rhodes point. He’s had the most unbelievably effective season in the majors so far that no one is talking about. But that leads to concern that Dusty could burn out guys like Cueto and Harang trying to get to Rhodes in the eighth (not sure you can burn out Arroyo). He’s been notorious for overworking starters and I think he’ll be more prone to do it as this season unfolds.

Also, recent history shows that when this team turns bad, it is black-banana-peel-with-fuzzy-mold bad. You can’t rely on 9th and 10th inning karma all season and there are potential pitfalls ahead. In fact, Cincinnati has played just 27 of its 64 games on the road and, for the most part, has beat up on teams like Houston, Pittsburgh and Chicago to gain this position.

It gets tougher starting right now. The rest of this month reads home series with the Dodgers, a West Coast interleague trip to Seattle and Oakland and a home set with in-state rival Cleveland and the defending NL champion Phillies. The mid-August ledger is potentially brutal with a home series with the Cards and a nine-games-in-nine-days roadie against the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants.

Yes, it will help the Reds that they are in an awful division and so far they have handled the teams below them, but there isn’t going to be much margin for error when comparing them against the Cardinals.

Wachsman: Which is a perfect segue into my final point. It will be difficult for the Reds to fall completely out of it because the division is so stinkin’ bad. The Cubs just haven’t put it together; Milwaukee, expected to surprise with its young bats, hasn’t put together anything resembling consistency; and Pittsburgh and Houston are – well – Pittsburgh and Houston.

While teams in the East and West fight and scratch and claw to get some separation, the Reds only have to worry about the Cardinals. That is a formidable task, to be sure, but not impossible. (Tony) LaRussa’s bunch probably is the better team, but the Reds have held their own with them, and that’s a good sign.

The other thing I think is important is that the Reds aren’t trying to be something other than what they are. This is a team that enjoys playing, but has to fight and scrap for everything it gets. They lead the league in runners going from first to third on outfield hits, basically playing an American League game. Teams that hustle make their own luck rather than simply hoping it comes about, and if nothing else the Reds hustle.

Tell me that Phillips and Votto and (Drew) Stubbs and crew don’t appear to be having fun. They don’t go through the motions, and that helps when things get tight. It’s hard for a team to sleepwalk through seven innings then turn it on.

I believe for once the Reds’ front office has something up its sleeve, and will be buyers at the trade deadline. It may not be anything as earth-shaking as getting Rolen, but it may be something that shores up the bullpen.

While you made the point that they can’t have the late inning karma all year, I’ll counter with the fact that the bullpen can’t be THIS awful all season. Once that group comes around the Reds should resemble real-life contenders – and should make it interesting for fans all the way through September.