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Rapp's 6-Pack: Week 9
October 29, 2011
Thanks for popping open the 6-Pack. We intend to have a lot of fun with this segment and maybe, just maybe, inform and enlighten along the way.
Is there anything better than flipping the channels on the remote on a football Saturday or Sunday and assessing how awe-inspiring your prognostication genius is? Of course not.
The birth of children would be up there, sure, but if your child is born on a football weekend like my son was 11 season openers ago, well, let’s just say a little bit of the joy is diminished.
And the best part about the 6-Pack is you don’t have to do anything. You can simply point a finger at me and laugh as I stumble along trying to predict the unpredictable – football.
Each week I’ll take a stab at six games – some of marquee status and some not – from both the collegiate and professional ranks. And I will do so without a net, meaning I will try to pick against the point spread. (Please, don’t try this at home or near sharp objects.)
Remember, this is all done for entertainment purposes only. In no way am I encouraging anybody to go out and blow hard-earned cashola on ballgames. Also, I will include Ohio State games on here from time to time when I have a strong hunch, but those picks will be based just on that – a hunch, and not because of any treasured inside information.
I considered changing that sunny preamble for the first time because of a new low last week – an oh-fer in the 6-Pack. I will not relive it, only vow that it won’t happen again.
The results from last week, up-to-year totals, perfect predictions (if there are any) and this week’s picks are below:
Last week’s picks: 0-6 (ouch!)
Record for the season: 16-23-3
College: 10-13-1
NFL: 6-10-2
Nailed right on the head: 0
Game 1: No. 9 Oklahoma (6-1, 3-1) at No. 8 K-State (7-0, 4-0)
When: Sat., 3:30 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
Line: Oklahoma by 13½
Analysis: The Sooners were stunned last week at home by Texas Tech and now have to trek to Manhattan, Kan., to face an undefeated team and cover a two-touchdown line. It’s a number begging you to take the points, only I’m not biting. Oklahoma is still the cream of the crop in the Big 12 and should be very motivated to erase the memory of last week. Quarterback Landry Jones is going to have a well-oiled right arm for this one. Kansas State has narrow wins against overrated teams Miami (Fla.) and Baylor, and also won a shootout at Tech a couple weeks ago. The run of good fortune is about to end, however. Kansas State has been a pleasant surprise this season but simply isn’t multidimensional enough to hang with the likes of Oklahoma – or any other truly elite team, for that matter.
Also Intriguing: K-State enters this game ranked 110th in the nation in passing (140.9 yards per game) but 18th in rushing (213.0 ypg). Junior quarterback Collin Klein actually leads the Wildcats in rushing with 670 yards.
Pick: Declawed – Sooners by 22
Game 2: No. 6 Stanford (7-0, 5-0) at USC (6-1, 3-1)
When: Sat., 8 p.m. Eastern (ABC)
Line: Stanford by 7½
Analysis: I undersold the Men of Troy last week, foolishly thinking they weren’t up for the challenge at Notre Dame. They handled that nighttime atmosphere admirably and showed they are rounding into pretty respectable form for coach Lane Kiffin. There is even now enough buzz for sentiment to build that they might be up for the upset over Pac-12 kingpin Stanford. After all the Cardinal has to lose sometime, right? Well, I don’t think it will be on this night. Stanford remains on a quest to prove its legitimacy and Andrew Luck is simply in a stratosphere beyond Matt Barkley. He’ll be very comfortable as usual on the big stage and I look for Stanford to pull away in the second half of this one.
Also Intriguing: The Cardinal has blitzed through five straight conference foes, ranks in the top five in both points scored (48.6) and points allowed (12.6) per game and is in the top 25 in passing yards (284.7) and rushing yards (219.4). Weaknesses? I think not.
Pick: No extra Luck required – big tree by 14
Game 3: No. 15 Wisconsin (6-1, 2-1) at Ohio State (4-3, 1-2)
When: Sat., 8 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
Line: Wisconsin by 7
Analysis: Last week the Badgers played in prime time on the road in the Big Ten and were favored by a touchdown. That didn’t turn out too well. After hopping on top of seemingly overmatched Michigan State, UW committed a series of costly mistakes, had to fight back late to knot the score at 31 and then watched the Spartan fans party until dawn after a successful 44-yard Hail Mary pass on the game’s final play. The whole affair knocked Bret Bielema’s squad out of the national title hunt and reopened the Big Ten Leaders Division. Whether or not any of that actually will help well-rested Ohio State remains to be seen, but I do expect the Buckeyes to show some pluck and the atmosphere to be electric. Still, that isn’t going to be enough for the Buckeye offense to keep up with Russell Wilson and Co. And when Wisconsin eventually gets control of this one, they are going to play some serious Ball – a heavy dose of tailback Montee Ball, that is.
Also Intriguing: The Buckeyes officially have played in 10 night games at Ohio State, posting a 7-3 record. However, two of those losses have come in recent years – a 13-6 loss to Penn State in 2008 and an 18-15 setback vs. USC the following year.
Pick: Back on track – Badgers by 11
Game 4: Rams (0-6) at Saints (5-2)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: New Orleans by 14
Analysis: Do I really need to lay out the reasons? The Saints just blasted an equally bad team last week by the count of 62-7. And the Lambs actually may be worse than Indianapolis considering that Sam Bradford is out again. St. Louis competed for about five minutes at Dallas last week and then forgot how to tackle in an embarrassing 34-7 loss. Little-used running back DeMarco Murray popped them for 253 yards rushing – and that’s against a defense that is even more susceptible against the pass with, get this, seven cornerbacks injured. Plus, Drew Brees is on top of his game and Mark Ingram should return to form for the Saints.
Also Intriguing: Not much. The Rams are putrid.
Pick: Lay the 14 all day – Saints by 30
Game 5: Patriots (5-1) at Steelers (5-2)
When: Sun., 4:15 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: New England by 2½
Analysis: This is Tom Brady vs. Ben Roethlisberger, blitzing defense vs. blitzing defense and two mastermind coaches with very different strengths. Mike Tomlin earns respect and gets results with quiet confidence while Bill Belichick is an evil genius who challenges his players to think the game on every play. Pittsburgh is as tough as one would expect at home, winning 16 of its last 21 games at Heinz Field, including playoff games. And the Steelers have done so with a plus-12.3 margin. But that isn’t intimidating at all to the Patriots, who have won five of its last six games in Pittsburgh. Plus, they are 6-1 overall against the Steelers when Brady starts including a pair of conference championships. The Pats are favored for a reason here and have been the more consistent team this season.
Also Intriguing: New England’s Wes Welker has 785 yards receiving on 51 receptions (an average of 15.4 yards per catch) but Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace isn’t far behind with 730 yards – and he’s done it on 36 catches (20.3).
Pick: Miserable human being/great coach – Pats by 6
Game 6: Cowboys (3-3) at Eagles (2-4)
When: Sun., 8:20 p.m. Eastern (NBC)
Line: Philadelphia by 3½
Analysis: The Eagles kept hope alive with a must-have win over the Redskins last week. The defense had four interceptions – three by safety and former Buckeyes Kurt Coleman – and the run game finally took off. In fact, LeSean McCoy carried the ball a career-high 28 times for 126 yards and a touchdown. “It was just one win,” QB Michael Vick said. “I think if we get the next one, we’ll get that confidence.” The Cowboys and their versatile defense will be no pushover but Philadelphia needs this win as much or more than the Cowboys. Dallas got an unforeseen boost from the aforementioned Murray but can’t rely on that kind of production again and will need some steady play from QB Tony Romo.
Also Intriguing: Eagles coach Andy Reid has been very successful coming out of bye weeks in his head coaching career – like 12-0 successful. Hard to ignore that stat.
Pick: Birds over the ‘Boys – Philly by 7
Enjoy the games!