I am not sure why I am trying this again.

I’m still a little dizzy after being piñata-ed by my predictions for Sweet 16 games. Of course, that includes Ohio State’s disappointing loss to Kentucky, Arizona’s stunning domination of Duke and Marquette’s total collapse against North Carolina. Those games tripped me up and the first two crushed most people’s brackets.

However, I did successfully predict Butler would take out Wisconsin and that VCU would outlast Florida State – I even had the Rams winning in overtime, which is almost spooky.

But who would have thought – me or anyone else – that VCU and Butler would still be standing and, in fact, preparing to face each other in one of two national semifinals this weekend? And Connecticut and Kentucky, while tradition-laden programs, weren’t exactly supposed to be in Houston, either.

However, those squads make up one of the most intriguing Final Fours of all time – the Davids meeting in the first game playing for the right to meet one of the Goliaths.

Each team arrives with a compelling story and with a bottled feeling of destiny.

UConn showcases perhaps the only true superstar remaining in the fray in guard Kemba Walker, a first-team All-American according to many services. The Huskies also have the most proven coach left standing, 68-year-old Jim Calhoun, who has brought a pair of national championship trophies back with him to Storrs.

But Kentucky coach John Calipari is no newcomer to the big stage. He came within a whisker of a title in 2008 while at Memphis behind the oncourt brilliance of Derrick Rose, only to watch Kansas steal the glory in overtime. He also led Marcus Camby and Massachusetts to the Final Four in 1996, but that season eventually belonged to, ironically, Kentucky.

Plus, Coach Cal’s best two postseason runs have been vacated because of rules violations, leaving many to wonder why UK would even hire him. Well, here is the answer: The guy knows how to get supreme talent and might trip into a national title while in Lexington. This Wildcats team certainly has an opportunity and even appears to be the favorite now with freshmen sensations Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones meshing well with veterans Josh Harrellson, DeAndre Liggins and Darius Miller.

Meanwhile, Butler is becoming the Kentucky of mid-major programs. The Bulldogs somehow lost five games in the Horizon League and were in danger of not even making the field but got hot at the right time. Guard Shelvin Mack and center Matt Howard, important cogs behind forward Gordon Hayward during last year’s improbable run to the national title game, are on top of their games at the moment and once again are figuring out how to make winning plays.

But the most amazing story has been Little-Engine-That-Could VCU. The Rams have navigated a path to the Final Four by beating USC in the First Four and then taking down, in order, Georgetown, Purdue, FSU and Kansas. And it’s the most recent win that has a long list of doubters now believing that this team could conceivably win it all. VCU jumped out on the Jayhawks, took their best shot and converted on several key possessions to salt away a very legitimate 71-61 win.

So a case could be made for any of the four teams left standing. But this is the Predictions segment of SportsRappUp.com and I actually have some confidence going into the Final Four considering I got both semifinals and the championship game correct when picking against the spread last season.

Here goes:

NATIONAL SEMIFINAL #1

Who: No. 11 VCU (28-11) vs. No. 8 Butler (27-9)
When: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. Eastern
Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston
Line: Butler by 2½
What To Watch: VCU plays with great tempo and moves with and without the ball freely. Coach Shaka Smart my be just 33 years old but he lives up to his name in the way he handles this outfit, keeps the positive vibes flowing and gets the Rams to share the basketball and believe in each other. Guard Joey Rodriguez (7.6 assists per game in the tournament) epitomizes this team with his hustle, quickness, tenacity and guts. He can find others while driving right into the teeth of traffic and has a knack for hitting big shots.

Bradford Burgess, a 6-6 wing, also has been sensational in the postseason. He has played at least 35 minutes in all five NCAA tourney games and has led the team in that time with 15.8 points and 1.6 blocks per game. With Burgess and forward Jamie Skeen buckling down defensively as well as scoring the ball, the Rams have improved dramatically in slowing down foes in March. They allowed opponents to shoot right around 44 percent from the field during the regular season and have shaved that number to 39 percent and allowed five fewer points per game in the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are equally efficient on both ends of the floor and have a hot inside-outside game going as well with Howard (16.7 ppg, 7.7 rebounds per game) his typical fearless self in the lane and Mack (21.3 ppg in the tournament) once again on fire from deep. He has shot just 34.1 percent on his three-pointers this season yet has canned 14 treys in the tournament, all of them seemingly well-timed.

Brad Stevens, Butler’s impeccable 34-year-old coach, appears to have every nuance covered and it’s no coincidence the Bulldogs thrive in late-game situations. However, of the four teams to reach Houston they have been the most fortunate by far. Butler needed a Howard basket at the buzzer out of a scramble play to upend Old Dominion in the first round, nipped top-seeded Pittsburgh controversially in the ensuing round and had to go overtime to get by Florida in the Elite Eight.

Key Matchup: Butler’s team defense vs. Skeen.

The Bulldogs really aren’t overly impressive statistically with their shooting even though they don’t face a lot of great athletes in league play. They shoot 44.3 percent from the field and 35.5 percent from long range, which shows their reliance on hitting timely shots and defending consistently. They do a great job of making teams shoot out of their comfort areas, a ploy that nearly allowed them to upset Duke in last year’s championship game.

However, Skeen (15.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg) is a wild card. A 6-9, 240-pound forward who is effective out of just about any halfcourt set, Skeen shoots 51.6 percent from the floor and 40.2 percent from behind the arc. And even if he’s denied looks at the basket he can muscle inside and get crucial putbacks. A former Wake Forest performer who transferred to VCU in 2008, Skeen has been around the block and fears no pressure situation. In short, he’s a headache for any team.

My Call: It’s just difficult for me to believe that the Rams are going to beat teams from the Pac-10, Big East, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 to get here and then bow out against a Horizon League team. Granted, Butler is not your typical mid-major, to be sure. Still, VCU’s bold attempt to be the lowest seed to advance all the way to the championship game is stirring – and the Rams are for real. It’s time to put the number away and simply look at the body of work. VCU has wiped out everyone in its path except Florida State, and even that game serves as proof that the Rams can get it done in a tight contest. They are cohesive and unpredictable on offense and the defensive effort has been stellar. If there is a loose ball, VCU is a good bet to snatch it. As tough an out as Butler is, I’m going with the Commonwealth.
Rams by 3

NATIONAL SEMIFINAL #2

Who: No. 4 Kentucky (29-8) vs. No. 3 Connecticut (30-9)
When: Saturday, approx. 8:49 p.m. Eastern
Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston
Line: Kentucky by 2
What To Watch: A lot of highly athletic and fierce players.

There’s a reason why programs such as these go after top-rated talent from the East, Midwest and South. They have played pressure-cooker basketball at the prep and AAU level and are proven commodities even when facing other well-regarded players.

Take Kentucky, for example. A product of Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Knight (17.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.2 apg) was the hero of several high school and AAU games and then hit the game-winning shot in the McDonald’s All-America Game in Columbus last year. This March, his talent translated and his confidence carried over as he hit a difficult scoop shot in the final seconds of a two-point win over Princeton and then victimized the Buckeyes with a 16-footer with Aaron Craft draped on him. Similarly, Jones (15.8. ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.9 bpg) has been comfortable in a key role as Calipari marched onward after losing five players – including four freshmen – as early entrants in last summer’s NBA draft. The team’s third-leading scorer is guard Doron Lamb (12.3 ppg), who also shows a great deal of promise.

But the Wildcats’ postseason run hasn’t been just about the new kids on the block. Harrellson (7.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) is playing the best basketball of his career and has held up well inside. Also, Liggins continues to show he can slow down the best wing players and still has managed to pick up his offense of late. Playing a roll similar to that of OSU’s David Lighty, Liggins leads UK in steals (44) and is second to Knight in assists (94).

Connecticut also has terrific athletes who play their roles to aplomb around Walker (23.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg), a 6-1 junior who meets every challenge he faces. He has averaged a Jimmer-like 26.8 points per game while firing up 18.3 shots per contest. He is asked to do a ton in Calhoun’s system and often has to create his own attempt with the shot clock winding down. Because of that, he shoots a very mortal 33.9 percent from behind the arc. But even against Arizona, when he was just 1 of 7 from deep, Walker still managed to score 20 points and dole out seven assists.

And that leads to the other point with UConn. After the Huskies won five games in five days to capture the Big East Tournament title, they have continued to find ways to get by quality opponents, dusting Bucknell and Cincinnati and outlasting San Diego State and U of A. The constant has been rebounding, which isn’t a surprise considering UConn ranks 11th in the nation in rpg with 39.6.

Key Matchup: Harrellson vs. UConn center Alex Oriakhi.

The 6-10 Harrellson came into the NCAA Tournament averaging just 6.8 ppg but has racked up 59 points in four contests including 17 against Ohio State. He is effective on pick-and-roll plays and his teammates now trust him in the half court.

Oriakhi matches up physically (6-9, 240) and statistically (9.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg) but he tends to get in foul trouble and has to be careful not to get overzealous with Harrellson. He’ll have his chances to make a statement of his own and he is UConn’s top shot blocker (1.6 bpg).

If one of these big men creates a decided advantage inside it could go a long way in advancing their team to the title game.

My Call: I don’t put any more stock in UConn’s 84-67 win over Kentucky in Hawaii than I do the fact that the Huskies were just 9-9 in the Big East regular season. The previous matchup was just the fifth game of the season for both teams and UK’s youngsters have grown leaps and bounds since that contest. So has UConn, which is as hot as any team in the nation right now.

The difference is Kentucky can get key stops when it needs to and does a little bit better job of spreading the wealth. If Walker has a subpar shooting night then his career likely will come to an end one game short of his goal.

This was supposed to be an Ohio State-UConn semifinal rematch reminiscent of 1999 only with the roles completely reversed. Unfortunately, though, for OSU fans, the Buckeyes didn’t finish the deal last weekend. Unfortunately for Connecticut and Calhoun, Calipari should be the coach who inches closer to a title.
Wildcats by 5