Predictions

2012 NFL Divisional Playoffs

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 20:53:20 GMT

College football conked me on the head so hard this season that I admit being a bit gun shy when it comes to offering predictions. However, my assertion that Alabama would win its rematch with LSU in the BCS National Championship Game has, perhaps, restored my faith in my prognostication ability.

(Tebow)

Plus, we are down to the elite eight in the NFL with Divisional Playoffs on tap for the weekend. So I will soldier on and provide you a closer look.

(Tebow)

With the NFL on center stage – (Tebow) – I suppose I need to follow suit – (Tebow) – and discuss the phenomenon -- (Tebow) – that is Tim Tebow, but I think we’ve all had enough of that.

(Tebow, Tebow, Tebow)

OK, so let’s look at history, including the very recent.

The four teams that will be hosting games this weekend – San Francisco, New England, Baltimore and Green Bay were a whopping 30-2 in their own stadiums this season. Also, home teams were a perfect 4-0 last week in the wildcard games.

Therefore, it would stand to reason that the safe and logical picks would be home-team sports all the way across the board.

However, there are two major considerations to visit first: 1) We always pick against the spread here, and 2) home teams have not enjoyed a great advantage in this round of the playoffs over the years.

In fact, in the last six rounds of the Divisional Playoffs home teams are a break-even 12-12.

So are there a couple upsets afoot? Could someone – (Tebow) – will his team to an improbable win – (Tebow) – on the road?

Here goes:

NFC Divisional Playoffs: Saints (14-3) at 49ers (13-3)
When: Sat., 4:30 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: New Orleans by 3
Analysis: The Niners earned home field by nipping the lowly Rams in Week 16 and, quite frankly, playing one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. However, the work they have put in to this point can’t be discounted. Coach Jim Harbaugh has them believing by the Bay again. Quarterback Alex Smith finally has put together a breakout season and he has talent around him in powerful running back Frank Gore, wideout Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis. Plus, the defense is stingy and the best in the league against the run. Now the bad news: Drew Brees is coming to town and the Saints may not need to run the ball. Brees set the NFL record with a ridiculous 5,476 passing yards in the regular season and added 46 touchdown passes compared to just 14 interceptions. He followed that up by absolutely shredding Detroit in the first round of the playoffs last week. New Orleans never has won a road game in the postseason including last year’s embarrassment at Seattle. Plus, this team somehow lost at St. Louis midseason. However, nine straight wins have followed – and a rematch with Green Bay beckons.
Pick: Victory is flapping in the Brees – Saints by 6

AFC Divisional Playoffs: Broncos (9-8) at Patriots (13-3)
When: Sat., 8 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: New England by 13
Analysis: Tebow. Just kidding. Actually, let’s start with No. 15. His affect on his team has been almost as noteworthy as the mania and hype surrounding him and the kid is not going to lay down just because he’s playing at Gillette Stadium. However, the facts can’t be ignored. He has connected on well below 50 percent of his passing attempts this season and in his two-year pro career and his yards-per attempt figure is below 7. That’s not going to get it done in Foxboro, even against a secondary that is susceptible to giving up big plays. Also, the Broncos lost their last three regular-season games after winning five in a row by a touchdown or less and were very fortunate last week in taking out a beat-up Pittsburgh team. While the effort, defensive opportunism and end-of-game heroics all have been admirable, this is the big-time – at New England. The Pats won by 18 in Denver a few weeks ago and Tom Brady had no difficulties under center. Tebow was able to amass 93 rushing yards in that game but also showed that the ball can be pried from his grip while on the move. Look for New England to come up wih timely takeaways again and gain control of this one.
Pick: A (left) wing and a prayer is not enough – Pats by 17

AFC Divisional Playoffs: Texans (11-6) at Ravens (12-4)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Baltimore by 7½
Analysis: All logic says to go with the nasty birds here. After all, they are the much more experienced playoff team and they were 8-0 at home this season including a 29-14 drubbing of Houston in midseason. Also, the Texans, like the Broncos, lost their final three regular-season games to limp into the postseason. However, Houston dominated the second half in the playoff win over Cincinnati and is playing with house money this week. Plus, the key pieces are now healthy with RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson, two of the NFL’s top young playmakers, back at the forefront of the offense. While Baltimore signal caller Joe Flacco has been fine statistically this season, he’s been more prone to key mistakes. Meanwhile, Houston’s T.J. Yates has shown some toughness and resiliency not previously determined. The hunch is that he’ll hold up, even against one of the nastiest defensive units in the league.
Pick: Here’s your upset – Texans by 1

NFC Divisional Playoffs: Gaints (10-7) at Packers (15-1)
When: Sun., 4:30 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Green Bay by 8
Analysis: We had this very game last year only it was on the other side of the ledger – the infallible NFL kingpin at home, rested and sporting a gaudy record against the feisty team from New York. Only the Jets pulled off the miracle and altered the landscape of the playoffs. Now the G-Men, who have a tendency to climb mountains, can do the same. New York has one of the game’s most underrate passing attacks and put in its best rushing output of the season last week in a 24-2 wipeout of Atlanta. Will we see that Giants team, the same one capable of going into New England and breaking the Patriots’ lengthy home winning streak, or the one that choked at San Francisco and fell apart at Washington and New Orleans? Either way, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks will put up some numbers just as Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings will make their share of plays downfield. Aaron Rodgers could be a tad rusty but the Giants won’t be able to possess the ball at will with their running game, which means the Packers will get plenty of offensive chances. It’d be tough to go against the champs at home knowing that.
Pick: This could be a classic – Pack by 4

Rapp's 6-Pack: Week 9

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 29 Oct 2011 18:50:00 GMT

Thanks for popping open the 6-Pack. We intend to have a lot of fun with this segment and maybe, just maybe, inform and enlighten along the way.

Is there anything better than flipping the channels on the remote on a football Saturday or Sunday and assessing how awe-inspiring your prognostication genius is? Of course not.

The birth of children would be up there, sure, but if your child is born on a football weekend like my son was 11 season openers ago, well, let’s just say a little bit of the joy is diminished.

And the best part about the 6-Pack is you don’t have to do anything. You can simply point a finger at me and laugh as I stumble along trying to predict the unpredictable – football.

Each week I’ll take a stab at six games – some of marquee status and some not – from both the collegiate and professional ranks. And I will do so without a net, meaning I will try to pick against the point spread. (Please, don’t try this at home or near sharp objects.)

Remember, this is all done for entertainment purposes only. In no way am I encouraging anybody to go out and blow hard-earned cashola on ballgames. Also, I will include Ohio State games on here from time to time when I have a strong hunch, but those picks will be based just on that – a hunch, and not because of any treasured inside information.

I considered changing that sunny preamble for the first time because of a new low last week – an oh-fer in the 6-Pack. I will not relive it, only vow that it won’t happen again.

The results from last week, up-to-year totals, perfect predictions (if there are any) and this week’s picks are below:

Last week’s picks: 0-6 (ouch!)
Record for the season: 16-23-3
College: 10-13-1
NFL: 6-10-2
Nailed right on the head: 0

Game 1: No. 9 Oklahoma (6-1, 3-1) at No. 8 K-State (7-0, 4-0)
When: Sat., 3:30 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
Line: Oklahoma by 13½
Analysis: The Sooners were stunned last week at home by Texas Tech and now have to trek to Manhattan, Kan., to face an undefeated team and cover a two-touchdown line. It’s a number begging you to take the points, only I’m not biting. Oklahoma is still the cream of the crop in the Big 12 and should be very motivated to erase the memory of last week. Quarterback Landry Jones is going to have a well-oiled right arm for this one. Kansas State has narrow wins against overrated teams Miami (Fla.) and Baylor, and also won a shootout at Tech a couple weeks ago. The run of good fortune is about to end, however. Kansas State has been a pleasant surprise this season but simply isn’t multidimensional enough to hang with the likes of Oklahoma – or any other truly elite team, for that matter.
Also Intriguing: K-State enters this game ranked 110th in the nation in passing (140.9 yards per game) but 18th in rushing (213.0 ypg). Junior quarterback Collin Klein actually leads the Wildcats in rushing with 670 yards.
Pick: Declawed – Sooners by 22

Game 2: No. 6 Stanford (7-0, 5-0) at USC (6-1, 3-1)
When: Sat., 8 p.m. Eastern (ABC)
Line: Stanford by 7½
Analysis: I undersold the Men of Troy last week, foolishly thinking they weren’t up for the challenge at Notre Dame. They handled that nighttime atmosphere admirably and showed they are rounding into pretty respectable form for coach Lane Kiffin. There is even now enough buzz for sentiment to build that they might be up for the upset over Pac-12 kingpin Stanford. After all the Cardinal has to lose sometime, right? Well, I don’t think it will be on this night. Stanford remains on a quest to prove its legitimacy and Andrew Luck is simply in a stratosphere beyond Matt Barkley. He’ll be very comfortable as usual on the big stage and I look for Stanford to pull away in the second half of this one.
Also Intriguing: The Cardinal has blitzed through five straight conference foes, ranks in the top five in both points scored (48.6) and points allowed (12.6) per game and is in the top 25 in passing yards (284.7) and rushing yards (219.4). Weaknesses? I think not.
Pick: No extra Luck required – big tree by 14

Game 3: No. 15 Wisconsin (6-1, 2-1) at Ohio State (4-3, 1-2)
When: Sat., 8 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
Line: Wisconsin by 7
Analysis: Last week the Badgers played in prime time on the road in the Big Ten and were favored by a touchdown. That didn’t turn out too well. After hopping on top of seemingly overmatched Michigan State, UW committed a series of costly mistakes, had to fight back late to knot the score at 31 and then watched the Spartan fans party until dawn after a successful 44-yard Hail Mary pass on the game’s final play. The whole affair knocked Bret Bielema’s squad out of the national title hunt and reopened the Big Ten Leaders Division. Whether or not any of that actually will help well-rested Ohio State remains to be seen, but I do expect the Buckeyes to show some pluck and the atmosphere to be electric. Still, that isn’t going to be enough for the Buckeye offense to keep up with Russell Wilson and Co. And when Wisconsin eventually gets control of this one, they are going to play some serious Ball – a heavy dose of tailback Montee Ball, that is.
Also Intriguing: The Buckeyes officially have played in 10 night games at Ohio State, posting a 7-3 record. However, two of those losses have come in recent years – a 13-6 loss to Penn State in 2008 and an 18-15 setback vs. USC the following year.
Pick: Back on track – Badgers by 11

Game 4: Rams (0-6) at Saints (5-2)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: New Orleans by 14
Analysis: Do I really need to lay out the reasons? The Saints just blasted an equally bad team last week by the count of 62-7. And the Lambs actually may be worse than Indianapolis considering that Sam Bradford is out again. St. Louis competed for about five minutes at Dallas last week and then forgot how to tackle in an embarrassing 34-7 loss. Little-used running back DeMarco Murray popped them for 253 yards rushing – and that’s against a defense that is even more susceptible against the pass with, get this, seven cornerbacks injured. Plus, Drew Brees is on top of his game and Mark Ingram should return to form for the Saints.
Also Intriguing: Not much. The Rams are putrid.
Pick: Lay the 14 all day – Saints by 30

Game 5: Patriots (5-1) at Steelers (5-2)
When: Sun., 4:15 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: New England by 2½
Analysis: This is Tom Brady vs. Ben Roethlisberger, blitzing defense vs. blitzing defense and two mastermind coaches with very different strengths. Mike Tomlin earns respect and gets results with quiet confidence while Bill Belichick is an evil genius who challenges his players to think the game on every play. Pittsburgh is as tough as one would expect at home, winning 16 of its last 21 games at Heinz Field, including playoff games. And the Steelers have done so with a plus-12.3 margin. But that isn’t intimidating at all to the Patriots, who have won five of its last six games in Pittsburgh. Plus, they are 6-1 overall against the Steelers when Brady starts including a pair of conference championships. The Pats are favored for a reason here and have been the more consistent team this season.
Also Intriguing: New England’s Wes Welker has 785 yards receiving on 51 receptions (an average of 15.4 yards per catch) but Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace isn’t far behind with 730 yards – and he’s done it on 36 catches (20.3).
Pick: Miserable human being/great coach – Pats by 6

Game 6: Cowboys (3-3) at Eagles (2-4)
When: Sun., 8:20 p.m. Eastern (NBC)
Line: Philadelphia by 3½
Analysis: The Eagles kept hope alive with a must-have win over the Redskins last week. The defense had four interceptions – three by safety and former Buckeyes Kurt Coleman – and the run game finally took off. In fact, LeSean McCoy carried the ball a career-high 28 times for 126 yards and a touchdown. “It was just one win,” QB Michael Vick said. “I think if we get the next one, we’ll get that confidence.” The Cowboys and their versatile defense will be no pushover but Philadelphia needs this win as much or more than the Cowboys. Dallas got an unforeseen boost from the aforementioned Murray but can’t rely on that kind of production again and will need some steady play from QB Tony Romo.
Also Intriguing: Eagles coach Andy Reid has been very successful coming out of bye weeks in his head coaching career – like 12-0 successful. Hard to ignore that stat.
Pick: Birds over the ‘Boys – Philly by 7

Enjoy the games!

Rapp's 6-Pack: Week 8

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 01:06:00 GMT

Thanks for popping open the 6-Pack. We intend to have a lot of fun with this segment and maybe, just maybe, inform and enlighten along the way.

Is there anything better than flipping the channels on the remote on a football Saturday or Sunday and assessing how awe-inspiring your prognostication genius is? Of course not.

The birth of children would be up there, sure, but if your child is born on a football weekend like my son was 11 season openers ago, well, let’s just say a little bit of the joy is diminished.

And the best part about the 6-Pack is you don’t have to do anything. You can simply point a finger at me and laugh as I stumble along trying to predict the unpredictable – football.

Each week I’ll take a stab at six games – some of marquee status and some not – from both the collegiate and professional ranks. And I will do so without a net, meaning I will try to pick against the point spread. (Please, don’t try this at home or near sharp objects.)

Remember, this is all done for entertainment purposes only. In no way am I encouraging anybody to go out and blow hard-earned cashola on ballgames. Also, I will include Ohio State games on here from time to time when I have a strong hunch, but those picks will be based just on that – a hunch, and not because of any treasured inside information.

Last week was a good one for the 6-Pack as I posted a mark of 5-1. My hunches to take Ohio State plus the points at Illinois, Michigan State to cover in its rivalry game with Michigan, and Auburn as a home dog against overmatched Florida all were box-office gold. I also hit two of three on the NFL side with the Packers flogging the hapless Rams and the Eagles finally righting the ship.

The results from last week, up-to-year totals, perfect predictions (if there are any) and this week’s picks are below:

Last week’s picks: 5-1
Record for the season: 16-17-3
College: 10-10-1
NFL: 6-7-2
Nailed right on the head: 0

Game 1: No. 21 Penn State (6-1, 3-0) at Northwestern (2-4, 0-3)
When: Sat., 7 p.m. Eastern (BTN)
Line: Penn State by 4
Analysis: The Nittany Lions have worked out their quarterback carousel and have Silas Redd churning out of the backfield. Their defense has been stout. And they’ve won tight games. That’s the good news. The bad news is those close-shave wins have come against the likes of Temple, Indiana and Purdue. Also, Iowa was downright feeble in Happy Valley a couple weeks ago. In other words, Penn State isn’t nearly as good as it’s 6-1 record. Northwestern, meanwhile has lost four straight games and has allowed 40.3 points in three league contests. But the Wildcats match up well and will be very hungry at home. Plus, Dan Persa is ready to remind us why he was considered an All-Big Ten QB before the season.
Also Intriguing: Persa has thrown just 98 passes so far this season because of injury but he’s completed 73 of them. That’s a percentage of 73.5.
Pick: Reality bites – ’Cats by 3

Game 2: USC (5-1, 3-1) at Notre Dame (4-2)
When: Sat., 7:30 p.m. Eastern (NBC)
Line: ND by 8½
Analysis: It’s hard to believe that neither of these teams is ranked heading into this game. It’s even more difficult to fathom that USC, which has completely dominated this series of late, is a more-than-a-TD underdog. Still, the Fighting Irish clearly are hitting stride and should be at an emotional peak for this one. After losing a pair of heartbreakers to open the season, ND fell out of national relevance but certainly didn’t disappear completely. And after racking up four straight wins, coach Brian Kelly’s squad has had two full weeks to prepare for this. Look for a lot of wideout Michael Floyd and some timely mistakes by Trojans QB Matt Barkley.
Also Intriguing: USC’s decades-long crutch, the run game, hasn’t been anything special. The Trojans are producing 133.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks just 77th among major college teams.
Pick: Wonder if Charlie Weis will be watching – Irish by 13

Game 3: No. 6 Wisconsin (6-0, 2-0) at No. 16 Michigan State (5-1, 2-0)
When: Sat., 8 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
Line: Wisconsin by 7
Analysis: The Badgers have been scary good during the first half of the season. They have scored 50.2 ppg, which ranks tops in the nation, and they have allowed just 9.7 ppg, which is third-best in the country. Yes, the schedule has been comfortable but UW has all the pieces in place for a serious run at a national title. The head of the monster, of course, is QB Russell Wilson, who has been nothing short of Heisman Trophy-worthy. Wilson has thrown 14 TD passes and tailback Montee Ball has collected 16 on the ground. Michigan State, though, has a proven defense and may be able to slow down the Wisconsin attack. Then again, maybe not – especially with defensive tackle William Gholston out.
Also Intriguing: Wisconsin is looking to avenge its only regular-season loss of a year ago.
Pick: The beat goes on – Badgers by 11

Game 4: Bears (3-3) at Buccaneers (4-2)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Chicago by 1
Analysis: Josh Freeman has nearly identical statistics to Jay Cutler, but what he doesn’t have is the headache of playing for an offensive coordinator who leaves him vulnerable to a blasting week after week and, sometimes, play after play. Tampa Bay was whacked two games ago at San Francisco but bounced back nicely last week in a clutch 26-20 win over New Orleans. The Bears rocked lowly Minnesota last week but haven’t won two games in a row this season. Plus, Chicago doesn’t rank above 20th in any major statistical categories this season.
Also Intriguing: The last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by a field goal. Here’s betting it continues.
Pick: Home dog, low number – Bucs by 3

Game 5: Chargers (4-1) at Jets (3-3)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: San Diego by 1
Analysis: The Chargers lost by 14 at New England but bounced back in their second try on the road with a 29-24 win at Denver. They come into their current two-game away stretch off a bye week and with confidence. Plus, weather shouldn’t be an issue as New York is expected to have Indian summer conditions. The Jets will be a tough out at home but have been pedestrian offensively of late. In fact they rank third in the NFL in rushing yards per game (80.8). Can former Charger LaDainian Tomlinson changes New York’s fortunes?
Also Intriguing: San Diego tight end Antonio Gates, who hasn’t played since Week 1, is listed as questionable.
Pick: Sorry there, Buddy Jr. – Bolts by 4

Game 6: Chiefs (2-3) at Raiders (4-2)
When: Sun., 4:05 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Oakland by 4½
Analysis: Hey, the Chiefs have won two in a row. Great. And they are coming off an open week. Wow, look out. Oh, except there’s this thing – Kansas City can’t run the football with any consistency and leading rusher Thomas Jones hasn’t scored a rushing TD this year. Quite frankly, the only reason why this line is so low is because of all the uncertainty surrounding the Raiders’ offense after their somewhat overzealous pursuit of Carson Palmer. But last time I checked, Darren McFadden was still running the football in Oakland. His 5.5-yard average per carry is reason enough to believe the home team will get control of this matchup.
Also Intriguing: Palmer isn’t expected to start but could make his Raiders debut.
Pick: Just keep winning, baby – Silver and Black by 14

Enjoy the games!

Rapp's 6-Pack: Week 6

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 21:07:00 GMT

Thanks for popping open the 6-Pack. We intend to have a lot of fun with this segment and maybe, just maybe, inform and enlighten along the way.

Is there anything better than flipping the channels on the remote on a football Saturday or Sunday and assessing how awe-inspiring your prognostication genius is? Of course not.

The birth of children would be up there, sure, but if your child is born on a football weekend like my son was 11 season openers ago, well, let’s just say a little bit of the joy is diminished.

And the best part about the 6-Pack is you don’t have to do anything. You can simply point a finger at me and laugh as I stumble along trying to predict the unpredictable – football.

Each week I’ll take a stab at six games – some of marquee status and some not – from both the collegiate and professional ranks. And I will do so without a net, meaning I will try to pick against the point spread. (Please, don’t try this at home or near sharp objects.)

Remember, this is all done for entertainment purposes only. In no way am I encouraging anybody to go out and blow hard-earned cashola on ballgames. Also, I will include Ohio State games on here from time to time when I have a strong hunch, but those picks will be based just on that – a hunch, and not because of any treasured inside information.

Last week brought more frustrating as Pac-12 newbies Utah and Colorado failed to show up at home and, more important, cover. Also, both Carolina and Seattle scored late for backdoor covers in the NFL. However, I nailed Wisconsin in a blowout and the Lions over the Cowboys.

The results from last week, up-to-year totals, perfect predictions (if there are any) and this week’s picks are below:

Last week’s picks: 2-4
Record for the season: 11-16-3
College: 7-10-1
NFL: 4-6-2
Nailed right on the head: 0

Game 1: No. 12 Michigan (5-0, 1-0) at Northwestern (2-2, 0-1)
When: Sat., 7 p.m. Eastern (BTN)
Line: Michigan by 7½
Analysis: This just has the feel of a shootout, especially with Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa good to go and very capable of burning the improving but still not solidified UM defense. On the flip side, it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats’ feeble defense bottling up Denard Robinson. Northwestern will do what it can to fill running lanes and dare Robinson to throw and that could lead to a couple takeaways. And it’s sound policy considering “Shoelace” already has amassed 603 yards and six touchdowns via the rush. But this still is likely to go down to who has the ball last. That’s all the ’Cats ask, of course, and it bodes well for anyone taking the points when the line is more than a touchdown.
Also Intriguing: NU coach Pat Fitzgerald plans to mix in QB Kain Colter with Persa. In fact, Colter is the team’s leading rusher with 266 yards on the ground.
Pick: A little road adversity – Michigan by 4

Game 2: Ohio State (3-2, 0-1) at No. 14 Nebraska (4-1, 0-1)
When: Sat., 8 p.m. Eastern (ABC)
Line: Nebraska by 10½
Analysis: Where do we even start when assessing Ohio State’s offensive shortcomings and the continued distractions and player losses due to injury and NCAA suspensions? Let’s just keep it at this: The Buckeyes are about to head into a hornet’s nest with lots of questions and concerns and without Boom Herron and DeVier Posey, who were supposed to be back in the game plan by now. OSU will try to lean on a diet of Braxton Miller, Jordan Hall and Carlos Hyde in hopes of keeping Nebraska’s quick-huddle, quick-strike offense on the sideline. Still, you can bet former Bo Pelini will employ an ultra-aggressive game plan and try to pressure young Miller and get control of the contest. Memorial Stadium should be rocking with the six-time champs in the house for NU’s first-ever home Big Ten game. And Ohio State doesn’t figure to survive if QB Taylor Martinez is able to get loose and churn his legs.
Also Intriguing: OSU tight end Jake Stoneburner had four catches and three TDs in the season opener and has just six grabs and one score in four subsequent outings.
Pick: Bucks about to get shucked – ’Huskers by 14

Game 3: Washington State (3-1, 1-0) at UCLA (2-3, 1-1)
When: Sat., 10:30 p.m. Eastern (FSN affiliates)
Line: UCLA by 3½
Analysis: It’s starting to get warm in Rick Neuheisel’s plush UCLA office. The former Bruin QB may have had moderate success in stops at Colorado and Washington but so far it’s not happening at his alma mater. UCLA either seems to become stagnant on offense or get caught in shootouts. Either way, it hasn’t led to anything above the mediocrity line in terms and wins and losses. Plus, the well is beginning to run dry on UCLA’s tradition of having playmaking linebackers and safeties, and that’s going to be a problem against a WASU team that racks up 379 yards passing a contest, good for fourth among FBS teams. QB Marshall Lobbestael is going to keep the Cougars in it and maybe pull out a win in the end
Also Intriguing: Washington State, which won at Colorado last week, is completing a three-game road trip.
Pick: Oh, Ricky, you’re so fired – Cougars by 1

Game 4: Eagles (1-3) at Bills (3-1)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Philadelphia by 3
Analysis: Buffalo is coming off a last-second loss, is back home and is facing a Philly team that is struggling mightily right now. So checkmark the Bills, right? Well, hold on there, chief. The Eagles have problems that aren’t going to be cured in a week if at all, namely a pretty porous run defense. However, it’s time to buck up and it’s hard to believe Fred Jackson – he of the 5.8 yards per carry – is really an elite NFL running back. Look for him to come back down to earth and for Michael Vick to keep the Bills defense off balance. Philly wasn’t able to finish off drives and missed a pair of field goals last week, which means coach Andy Reid could be looking for more big plays in this one. The Bills have kept up offensively in every game as Ryan Fitzpatrick already has more than 1,000 yards passing and 9 TDs.
Also Intriguing: Vick threw for 416 yards in last week’s 24-23 loss to San Francisco but could do major damage in this game with his legs. He’s on the brink of the NFL record for most rushing yards by a QB.
Pick: Time to take flight – Eagles by 7

Game 5: Chiefs (1-3) at Colts (0-4)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Indianapolis by 1½
Analysis: Both of these teams have been major disappointments and now they are beginning to get beat up. Of course, Indy went into the season with the most significant injury in the league: the loss of superstar QB Peyton Manning. Sure enough, the Colts haven’t figured out a way to win since, although they have been very competitive the last couple weeks against Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Joseph Addai is beginning to get things done rushing the football and Curtis Painter has had flashes under center. Coach Jim Caldwell said he may go back to veteran Kerry Collins, but Collins has been ailing. KC has been dreadful trying to run the ball and QB Matt Cassel hasn’t been much better. He’s completing right around 65 percent of his passes but has just four TD tosses compared to five interceptions.
Also Intriguing: The Chiefs actually are coming off a victory, but that was at home last week against Minnesota, one of two 0-4 NFC teams.
Pick: Someone’s got to win, right? – Colts by 6

Game 6: Bengals (2-2) at Jaguars (1-3)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Jacksonville by 1½
Analysis: Points have come at a premium for the Jaguars, who haven’t scored more than 16 in a game this year. The last three weeks have netted 3, 10 and 10 – and, as one might guess, three straight losses. The problem is a league-worst passing attack. Since the team releases David Garrard coach Jack Del Rio hasn’t come up with an answer. First he went with Luke McCown and then rookie Blaine Gabbert, who has the league’s worst rating and has completed less than half of his pass attempts. Gabbert is 0-2 as the starter but he does have a competent offensive line and Maurice Jones-Drew to take handoffs. Look for the lad to start to pick it up and maybe even surprise the Bengals. Cincy has the makings of a respectable offense with Andy Dalton at QB and A.J. Green as a top receiving target, but they are still rookies after all. And they will be on the road.
Also Intriguing: These are simply two of the worst franchises in the NFL, if that counts.
Pick: Going with years and years of history here – Jags by 4

Enjoy the games!

Rapp's 6-Pack: Week 5

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 22:20:25 GMT

Thanks for popping open the 6-Pack. We intend to have a lot of fun with this segment and maybe, just maybe, inform and enlighten along the way.

Is there anything better than flipping the channels on the remote on a football Saturday or Sunday and assessing how awe-inspiring your prognostication genius is? Of course not.

The birth of children would be up there, sure, but if your child is born on a football weekend like my son was 11 season openers ago, well, let’s just say a little bit of the joy is diminished.

And the best part about the 6-Pack is you don’t have to do anything. You can simply point a finger at me and laugh as I stumble along trying to predict the unpredictable – football.

Each week I’ll take a stab at six games – some of marquee status and some not – from both the collegiate and professional ranks. And I will do so without a net, meaning I will try to pick against the point spread. (Please, don’t try this at home or near sharp objects.)

Remember, this is all done for entertainment purposes only. In no way am I encouraging anybody to go out and blow hard-earned cashola on ballgames. Also, I will include Ohio State games on here from time to time when I have a strong hunch, but those picks will be based just on that – a hunch, and not because of any treasured inside information.

Last week I was unable to follow up a 5-0-1 showing and, in fact, nearly reversed it. Going against my Rams was a smart move but taking the points instead of my alma mater wasn’t – as the Buckeyes covered the spread with a 37-17 win. Still, I want to know where the phantom hold was on a very late Bears punt return that nullified a touchdown and put me on the wrong side of the number. Seriously, can anyone find the hold?

Still, I trudge onward.

The results from last week, up-to-year totals, perfect predictions (if there are any) and this week’s picks are below:

Last week’s picks: 1-5
Record for the season: 9-12-3
College: 6-8-1
NFL: 3-4-2
Nailed right on the head: 0

Game 1: Washington State (2-1) at Colorado (1-3)
When: Sat., 3:30 Eastern (FCSP)
Line: Colorado by 3
Analysis: OK, I’m fishing here. If you don’t have DirecTV or an obscure cable package you can’t even find this game and it’s not about to cause waves in the Pac-12 or anywhere else no matter the outcome. However, I need to get back on the right track and this one looks almost like a freebie. The Buffaloes are no juggernaut. They’re a young team with a first-year head coach (Jon Embree) and they got shortcomings, especially on special teams. But they’ve got good offensive personnel, they’re due some breaks and they will be at home. The Cougars rank fourth in the nation in passing yards per game (380.0) and fifth in points per game (49.0) but that is based on a three-team sampling of Idaho State, UNLV and San Diego State, the latter a 42-24 loss. Plus, we are talking about WASU here, a program that rarely plays well on the road and long has been considered prey in conference games. Colorado should be just fine with Tyler Hansen running offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy’s system and he’ll be able to reconnect with star wideout Paul Richardson again after the Buckeyes made him disappear.
Also Intriguing: The Cougars are in the midst of a three-game stretch away from home – at SDSU, Colorado and then UCLA. The next five games on the ledger include dates with Stanford, Oregon and Arizona State, all currently ranked.
Pick: Rocky Mountain high – Buffs by 13

Game 2: Washington (3-1) at Utah (2-1)
When: Sat., 7 p.m. Eastern (FSN affiliates)
Line: Utah by 8
Analysis: The Huskies are off to a surprising start and even proved to be semi-competitive in a loss at Nebraska a couple weeks ago. The problem is they can’t stop anybody. UW is allowing 33.3 ppg, which ranks 104th out of 120 FBS schools. Not only did the Cornhuskers ring Washington up for 51, the killer trio of Eastern Washington, Hawaii and Cal scored 23 or more points in UW’s three wins. Utah has a little more toughness than that. In fact, the Utes were a made field goal away from tying USC and forcing overtime in the Coliseum – instead the kick was blocked and returned for a touchdown. That was a cruel result for a program that gave the effort it did in its first-ever Pac-12 game. This time, it’s Utah’s first-ever conference showcase at home – and the guys with the feathers on their helmets will be sufficiently motivated again.
Also Intriguing: Utah is allowing 14.3 points per game, which makes it a defensive force in this conference.
Pick: Huskies are meat – Utes by 16

Game 3: No. 8 Nebraska (3-0) at No. 7 Wisconsin (4-0)
When: Sat., 8 p.m. Eastern (ABC)
Line: Wisconsin by 9½
Analysis: I got burned in this spot last week as I went against the visiting Cornhuskers to cover on the road, but they managed to put together a solid showing in a 38-14 win at Wyoming. Now they are in the national spotlight, playing in their first-ever Big Ten game, and it stands to reason Bo Pelini will have his troops fired up. Still, the Badgers have been nothing short of sensational so far this season, they’re at home and they have the real Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback – N.C. State transfer Russell Wilson. This kid is a dynamic athlete who is a threat to take off at any time and seems to make all the right decisions. And that assessment of his game belittles his ability to sling the football. In four outings so far for the Badgers, Wilson has been scintillating – 69 of 91 for 1,136 yards and 11 TDs). UW also has a standout runner in Montee Ball, a defensive anchor point in linebacker Chris Borland, a star wideout in Nick Toon and its normal allotment of cornfed killers on the offensive and defensive lines. Nebraska, though, should show plenty of fight in this one and has a dangerous QB of its own in Taylor Martinez. Plus, look out for kick returner Ameer Abdallah.
Also Intriguing: Nebraska leads the Big Ten in rushing with 272.5 yards per game and Wisconsin is allowing jus 89.2 per contest. Something has to give.
Pick: Jump around – Badgers by 15

Game 4: Panthers (1-2) at Bears (1-2)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Chicago by 6
Analysis: Clearly, it’s not Nirvana in the Windy City right now. The Bears have endured a pair of frustrating losses and quarterback Jay Cutler already has popped off that Mad Mike, offensive coordinator Mike Martz, is calling way too many passing plays and abandoning any hope of balance. Considering Chicago ran it just 12 times for 13 yards in last week’s loss to Green Bay, Cutler has a point. Still, the Bears can get it going and should be able to handle Carolina. After all, less than a year ago the Panthers were the worst team in the NFL and pointing to the top pick in the draft while Chicago was hosting the NFC championship game. Of course, the Panthers used that overall No. 1 choice to select Cam Newton and the lad has been very good with 400-yard passing performances in Weeks 1 and 2. However, Newton slowed down and threw for just 158 yards last week and his exploits are now on film for the rest of the league to study. Carolina is coming back to respectability but the Bears should gain control of this one at home.
Also Intriguing: Chicago won last year’s matchup 23-6.
Pick: Mr. Heisman, meet Mr. Urlacher – Bears by 12

Game 5: Lions (3-0) at Cowboys (2-1)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Dallas by 2
Analysis: The Lions have put together some impressive efforts against the Cowboys over the years but almost all of those were in Motown and with Detroit playing the role of heavy underdog. That is not the case anymore. Even though Dallas is favored and will be in its palatial home, Detroit is the better-looking team right now on paper. And it’s the early draft picks who have been particularly impressive, namely QB Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Dallas is beat up at receiver – Miles Austin is out and Dez Bryant is iffy – and hasn’t exactly been consistent at running the ball. Tony Romo is showing some toughness playing with a cracked rib and a punctured lung but he’s in nagging pain and nagged by Dallas’ shortcomings on offense. The Cowboys are averaging 23.0 ppg but allowing 22.3, not exactly world-beating.
Also Intriguing: Stafford and Romo have similar passing yardage, 977 to 942, but Stafford has nine TDs passes to Romo’s two and is completing 66.9 percent of his passes – five percentage points higher than that of Romo.
Pick: The real playoff team stands up – Lions by 4

Game 6: Falcons (1-2) at Seahawks (1-2)
When: Sun., 4:05 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Atlanta by 4
Analysis: The Falcons have been disappointing. The Seahawks have been atrocious.
Also Intriguing: Not much.
Pick: If the Seachickens are on, just look away – Falcons by 11

Enjoy the games!

Rapp's 6-Pack: Week 4

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 18:38:00 GMT

Thanks for popping open the 6-Pack. We intend to have a lot of fun with this segment and maybe, just maybe, inform and enlighten along the way.

Is there anything better than flipping the channels on the remote on a football Saturday or Sunday and assessing how awe-inspiring your prognostication genius is? Of course not.

The birth of children would be up there, sure, but if your child is born on a football weekend like my son was 11 season openers ago, well, let’s just say a little bit of the joy is diminished.

And the best part about the 6-Pack is you don’t have to do anything. You can simply point a finger at me and laugh as I stumble along trying to predict the unpredictable – football.

Each week I’ll take a stab at six games – some of marquee status and some not – from both the collegiate and professional ranks. And I will do so without a net, meaning I will try to pick against the point spread. (Please, don’t try this at home or near sharp objects.)

Remember, this is all done for entertainment purposes only. In no way am I encouraging anybody to go out and blow hard-earned cashola on ballgames. Also, I will include Ohio State games on here from time to time when I have a strong hunch, but those picks will be based just on that – a hunch, and not because of any treasured inside information.

Last week I turned around a very rough start with a 5-0-1 showing which now has me above water for the season. Whew. Let’s hope I can keep treading it.

My “hell week” concept worked as I went against all the teams I enjoy following and picked a few I despise, which included Miami’s victory over my alma mater. Also, as suspected UCLA was outclassed by surging Texas and my Rams went down in flames, as I predicted, on “Monday Night Football.” Also, my bold pick of Temple beating Penn State outright didn’t quite come true, but the upstart Owls certainly played inside the number.

Now it’s time for some follow-up. The results from last week, up-to-year totals, perfect predictions (if there are any) and this week’s picks are below:

Last week’s picks: 5-0-1
Record for the season: 8-7-3
College: 6-5-1
NFL: 2-2-2
Nailed right on the head: 0

Game 1: Colorado (1-2) at Ohio State (2-1)
When: Sat., 3:30 Eastern (ABC or ESPN2)
Line: Ohio State by 17
Analysis: Let’s just start with this little diddy, shall we? If you’re a Buckeye fan or you were on this site in the last week I don’t have to detail OSU’s woes in a 24-6 loss to the Hurricanes last week. Also, you’re aware that head coach Luke Fickell will call upon true freshman Braxton Miller to start and presumably man down the quarterback spot at the expense of senior Joe Bauserman, who was a dreadful 2 of 14 passing last week. That is the logical move and it could pay off against an aggressive and often vulnerable Colorado defense. But the Buffaloes are going to make it a feast or famine day for the offense with their pressure and they also have the capability of throwing the ball with aplomb. Quarterback Tyler Hansen is on his way to a big senior season with more than 900 yards passing in his first three games and his favorite receiver has been sophomore Paul Richardson, who is averaging 20 yards per catch. The Buckeyes need to get back on track and establish some offensive identity but it isn’t likely it will be easy, even against a team that has lost 19 straight times on the road,
Also Intriguing: Ohio State and Colorado rank first and second all-time in games played vs. ranked opponents with 109 and 107, respectively. Unfortunately, neither team gets to add to that ledger with this game.
Pick: Run, Braxton, run – Buckeyes by 11

Game 2: No. 11 Florida State (2-1) at No. 21 Clemson (3-0)
When: Sat., 3:30 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
Line: Clemson by 2½
Analysis: Florida State went from a team apparently capable of winning the national championship to one in trouble in the matter of a couple days as the Seminoles were dumped at home 23-13 by Oklahoma and then word spread that quarterback E.J. Manuel had hurt his shoulder enough to be considered iffy for this week. And then there is the matter of facing a Tigers squad that is high off its win over defending national champion Auburn and remains in the environs of Death Valley. That was enough for the handicappers to favor Clemson. But let’s get a little perspective here. FSU has as much talent on defense as anyone in the country with the possible exception of LSU and is still a high quality team. And the Seminoles took the top-ranked team deep into the fourth quarter last week. Clemson is good, possibly very good, but not the class of the ACC. Plus, Manuel is a gamer who will be hard-pressed to keep off the field.
Also Intriguing: The visiting team is 1-8 in this rivalry in the last nine years FSU won last year’s matchup at home, 16-13.
Pick: Welcome back to the top 10 – ’Noles by 5

Game 3: No. 9 Nebraska (3-0) at Wyoming (3-0)
When: Sat., 7:30 p.m. Eastern (Versus)
Line: Nebraska by 21½
Analysis: Taylor Martinez is on his game and the Cornhuskers have proven to be close to unstoppable when they get their uptempo offense in gear. In fact, they have racked up averages of 44.3 points and 252.3 rushing yards per game. There isn’t much reason to believe the Cowboys will change their trends, even with their fairly encouraging start. However, Nebraska’s Blackshirts on defense have been more like a dull gray as they’ve allowed 24.7 points and 232.7 passing yards per outing so far this season. Wyoming will be able to move the ball in the air and dent the scoreboard but it won’t rattle the visitors.
Also Intriguing: Nebraska linebacker David Lavonte headed into the week as the Big Ten’s leading tackler with 32 total tackles. However, he has just nine solo stops this season.
Pick: Pinball wizards – ’Huskers by 14

Game 4: Ravens (1-1) at Rams (0-2)
When: Sun., 4:05 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Baltimore by 4
Analysis: It pains me to be right about my Rams when I make gloomy predictions, so I’m hoping to outsmart myself this time. Still, these are the facts: the Ravens fell apart last week and should be sufficiently motivated, Steven Jackson won’t play and backup running back Cadillac Williams is questionable, and the Rams simply are at a talent disadvantage in this game. The receiving corps has been mediocre at best, especially with possession man Danny Amendola out with a dislocated elbow. Meanwhile, the Ravens should be able to open up enough room for Ray Rice and cause a turnover or two with their opportunistic defense to get control of this one. Plus, the Rams have not fared well against physical teams of late.
Also Intriguing: Rice is actually the leading Baltimore receiver with nine catches for 95 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Pick: Ugggh – Ravens by 9

Game 5: Packers (2-0) at Bears (1-1)
When: Sun., 4:15 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Green Bay by 3½
Analysis: Aaron Rodgers has picked up right where he left off in the NFL playoffs as he’s completed right around 70 percent of his passes and has compiled 620 yards and 5 TDs already. Plus, the Pack has a potent running game with James Starks off to a big start and Ryan Grant back healthy is a changeup role. Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson were a little dinged up but are going to play and remain anchor points of the defense. So it appears stacked up against the Bears. However, they were dominant in their season-opening win over Atlanta and have one of the NFL’s best-kept secrets in versatile RB Matt Forte. And when the Bears get good Jay Culter and not his evil twin, they elevate considerably.
Also Intriguing: The last time these two teams met, the Packers won the NFC Championship Game, 21-14, also at Soldier Field. Plus, Cutler’s toughness was questioned as he left the game with a knee injury.
Pick: Call this a hunch – Bears by 4

Game 6: Steelers (1-1) at Colts (0-2)
When: Sun., 8:20 p.m. Eastern (NBC)
Line: Pittsburgh by 10½
Analysis: I’ve enjoyed the state of denial in which Colts fans now find themselves. They just refuse to believe this is a lost season simply because of the loss of one player. Well, that one player is No. 18, Peyton Manning, the most valuable asset in the NFL. Without him all of Indianapolis’ warts have been exposed, not the least of which is a less-than-effective running game. Now here come the bruisers of the NFL, the Steelers, who rediscovered their mojo last week. After turning the ball over seven times and being drubbed by the Ravens in Week 1, Pittsburgh shut the door on hapless Seattle last week. The Colts are even more hapless and may not get out of single digits, either.
Also Intriguing: It might finally be OK to call Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace an elite receiver. He has 16 catches for 233 yards in his first two games and is Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target by far with Hines Ward finally at the end of his glorious career.
Pick: These are the Colts Elway avoided – Steel Men by 20

Enjoy the games!

Rapp's 6-Pack: Week 3

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 17 Sep 2011 15:25:00 GMT

Thanks for popping open the 6-Pack. We intend to have a lot of fun with this segment and maybe, just maybe, inform and enlighten along the way.

Is there anything better than flipping the channels on the remote on a football Saturday or Sunday and assessing how awe-inspiring your prognostication genius is? Of course not.

The birth of children would be up there, sure, but if your child is born on a football weekend like my son was 11 season openers ago, well, let’s just say a little bit of the joy is diminished.

And the best part about the 6-Pack is you don’t have to do anything. You can simply point a finger at me and laugh as I stumble along trying to predict the unpredictable – football.

Each week I’ll take a stab at six games – some of marquee status and some not – from both the collegiate and professional ranks. And I will do so without a net, meaning I will try to pick against the point spread. (Please, don’t try this at home or near sharp objects.)

Remember, this is all done for entertainment purposes only. In no way am I encouraging anybody to go out and blow hard-earned cashola on ballgames. Also, I will include Ohio State games on here from time to time when I have a strong hunch, but those picks will be based just on that – a hunch, and not because of any treasured inside information.

Well, it finally happened. After a 2-for-3 showing for last season and a tough start to this one, we have a 6-Pack first: an oh-fer. And it took outrageous circumstances.

I posted an ugly mark of 0-4-2 thanks to a complete defensive breakdown by Notre Dame at Michigan, a push on Arizona-Carolina and another after a bizarre ending at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum which saw USC return a blocked field goal for a TD on the final play, have the score wiped away by a penalty and then officially added hours later.

I can now say I’ve seen it all.

But enough about my misery. Let’s move on to this week. The results from last week, up-to-year totals, perfect predictions (if there are any) and this week’s picks are below:

Last week’s picks: 0-4-2
Record for last season: 3-7-2
Nailed right on the head: 0

Game 1: Penn State (1-1) at Temple (2-0)
When: Sat., noon Eastern (ESPN)
Line: Penn State by 7½
Analysis: Poor Penn State. The Lions were overmatched last week while hosting Alabama, but are expected to get back on track this weekend against a MAC foe with lesser talent. Make that supposedly lesser talent. Temple coach Steve Addazio is picking up where Al Golden left off and has inherited a team rife with seniors on both sides of the ball. But the most dangerous member of the Owls s 6-0, 218-pound running back Bernard Pierce, who is on pace to rush for about 1,800 yards this season. Pierce could carry Temple the way Jordan Todman put UConn on his back last year. And the Owls will be the envy of their conference if they can get steady play from QB Mike Gerardi. The Lions actually ranked just seventh in the Big Ten against the rush last season and couldn’t slow down Bama. So far, so good, and an upset could be brewing here.
Also Intriguing: Penn State won last year’s matchup at Beaver Stadium, but had to hang on for a 22-13 decision.
Pick: Lions could be prey in this one – Owls by 3

Game 2: No. 24 Texas (2-0) at UCLA (1-1)
When: Sat., 3:30 p.m. Eastern (ABC or ESPN)
Line: Texas by 3½
Analysis: I shouldn’t bite on the Longhorns again after picking them to cover against BYU only to watch them barely hang on at home. Texas looked a bit disjointed offensively and the sluggishness may have caused QB Garrett Gilbert to lose or at least share his job. Plus, Texas still doesn’t look like a dynamic team on either side of the ball and is inching its way back to the top 10 after last year’s 5-7 disaster. Still, given all that, Mack Brown’s problems pale in comparison to those of Rick Neuheisel, who simply hasn’t gotten UCLA off the deck and is in danger of losing his job. The Bruins have quality players but again have been uninspiring with a loss to Houston and a win over lowly San Jose State. And the fact that they ran all over UT in a 34-12 win in Austin last year may only serve as motivation for the visitors.
Also Intriguing: Neuheisel was 33-14 at Colorado and 33-16 at Washington but currently is just 17-22 coaching his alma mater.
Pick: Payback is, well, you know – ’Horns by 13

Game 3: No. 17 Ohio State (2-0) at Miami (Fla.) (0-1)
When: Sat., 7:30 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
Line: Miami by 2½
Analysis: The Buckeyes have won the last two meetings and they were both biggees – an unforgettable 31-24 decision in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl that earned a national title and a 36-24 win at the Horseshoe last season. But none of that matters a whole lot right now considering each team is breaking in a new head coach and dealing with NCAA probes and impending sanctions. Plus, it’s hard to imagine the Buckeyes hanging 30-plus on the Hurricanes again as a young and very unproven offense will be operating in a hostile environment. OSU coach Luke Fickell is going to need a spark from somebody and may turn to freshman Braxton Miller, a dual-threat quarterback. Miami’s Jacory Harris prefers not to take off with the ball but he can sling it with the best of them when he gets hot. When he’s rattled, on the other hand, he’s capable of being as bad as last year when he threw a career-high four picks against the Buckeyes. Harris will be key again, but the Buckeyes are going to have to come up with some big plays, show some grit and find some offensive imagination to think they are going to escape Sun Life Stadium with a W.
Also Intriguing: OSU has just two takeaways in its first two games this season and each was an interception by a linebacker – Andrew Sweat with an acrobatic grab near the sideline against Akron and Storm Klein with his first career pick last week vs. Toledo.
Pick: Night terrors again – Canes by 10

Game 4: Raiders (1-0) at Bills (1-0)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Buffalo by 3
Analysis: Both teams knocked off AFC West teams on the road, meaning the winner of this one has a chance to be an early fuzzy story in the NFL. While the Raiders deserve kudos for taking down the archrival Broncos, Buffalo absolutely destroyed the Chiefs in Kansas City and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick now appears very comfortable as the trigger man for the Bills’ offense. Oakland had to travel to Denver and play on Monday night and now faces a 1 p.m. start on the East Coast while Buffalo will be in the familiar confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium. Darren McFadden is becoming a load for the Raiders but several other skill players will miss this game because of injury. Meanwhile, Buffalo leading receiver Stevie Johnson has been cleared to play.
Also Intriguing: Raiders placekicker Sebastian Janikowski tied the NFL record for longest field goal last week by banging home a 63-yarder at the end of the first half. Janikowski said he made a couple 70-yarders in warm-ups in the thin Colorado air.
Pick: Raiders of the lost time zone – Bills by 9

Game 5: Browns (0-1) at Colts (0-1)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Cleveland by 2½
Analysis: This looks like the Toilet Bowl with each team coming off a dreadful performance last week. The Browns frittered away a chance to get off on the right foot when they forgot to play the fourth quarter and lost at home to the Bengals. The Colts, however, were downright embarrassing. They lost 34-7 at Houston without Peyton Manning and the score doesn’t even indicate how badly they were thrashed. Veteran Kerry Collins has been rushed into service at QB but this offense is a shell of its former self without No. 18 at the controls. Plus, the running game has ebbed for several years. The Browns should be able to eventually open up a lead, and this Colts teams is no longer built for the comeback.
Also Intriguing: The Colts had difficulty getting the Texans off the field even though Houston was without RB Arian Foster. Look for a heavy dose of Peyton Hillis in this one.
Pick: There’s a new doormat in town – Browns by 5

Game 6: Rams (0-1) at Giants (0-1)
When: Mon., 8:30 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
Line: New York by 6
Analysis: This was supposed to be the year the Rams continue ther resurgence, get more offensive weapons in place, tap into a solid offseason of player acquisitions and maybe even contend for a playoff spot. Well, forget all that. S. Louis reverted to all its old losing ways last week while being pummeled by the Eagles and in the process got beat up, which also has been a problem for, oh, about a decade. Yes, the Eagles are very good and, yes, the Giants also had some warts exposed in a 28-14 loss at Washington, but the Rams have bigger issues with Steven Jackson out and the wide receivers unable to hang onto a lot of catchable balls. Sam Bradford, the NFL offensive rookie of the year last season, claims he can go after hurting a finger against the Eagles, but the Giants will be merciless with their pass rush.
Also Intriguing: Giants RB Brandon Jacobs was quiet in Week 1 but should be more in the game plan against the Rams, especially if New York is able to open up a lead.
Pick: Bradford still needs more help – G-Men by 12

Enjoy the games!

Rapp's 6-Pack: Week 2

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 23:22:25 GMT

Thanks for popping open the 6-Pack. We intend to have a lot of fun with this segment and maybe, just maybe, inform and enlighten along the way.

Is there anything better than flipping the channels on the remote on a football Saturday or Sunday and assessing how awe-inspiring your prognostication genius is? Of course not.

The birth of children would be up there, sure, but if your child is born on a football weekend like my son was 11 season openers ago, well, let’s just say a little bit of the joy is diminished.

And the best part about the 6-Pack is you don’t have to do anything. You can simply point a finger at me and laugh as I stumble along trying to predict the unpredictable – football.

Each week I’ll take a stab at six games – some of marquee status and some not – from both the collegiate and professional ranks. And I will do so without a net, meaning I will try to pick against the point spread. (Please, don’t try this at home or near sharp objects.)

Remember, this is all done for entertainment purposes only. In no way am I encouraging anybody to go out and blow hard-earned cashola on ballgames. Also, I will include Ohio State games on here from time to time when I have a strong hunch, but those picks will be based just on that – a hunch, and not because of any treasured inside information.

The first week there were only college games on the ledger but I will mix in NFL games beginning this week.

I was tripped up by a Northwestern team that surprisingly won at Boston College without quarterback Dan Persa and I guessed wrong in assuming the Oregon Ducks could onto the football – or that Indiana would play with any motivation. On the positive, I was all over South Florida (outright winner over Notre Dame), Michigan and Stanford as cover teams in Week 1.

OK, now you know what this is all about. The results from last week, up-to-year totals, perfect predictions (if there are any) and this week’s picks are below:

Last week’s picks: 3-3
Record for last season: 65-32-5
Nailed right on the head: 0

Game 1: BYU (1-0) at Texas (1-0)
When: 7 p.m. Eastern (ESPN2)
Line: Texas by 7
Analysis: BYU logged a nice win in Week 1 by escaping a trip to SEC country with a 14-13 win at Ole Miss. Linebacker Kyle Van Noy, of all people, was the hero as he recovered a fumble in the end zone for the winning score. However, the Cougars were just 1-5 on the road last year, losing decisively at Air Force, Florida State, Utah State and TCU. If Texas is a bowl team like those outfits were last year – and certainly there is legitimate hope of that in Austin – then it stands to reason that the Longhorns can get control of this one. Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert is coming off an encouraging performance in last week’s 34-9 win over Rice.
Also Intriguing: BYU is going to need to log several impressive wins this season to make a major bowl given its Independent status. This would be an awfully good start to that end.
Pick: The Cougars are road-weary again – ’Horns by 13

Game 2: Utah (1-0) at USC (1-0)
When: 7:30 p.m. Eastern (Versus)
Line: USC by 9
Analysis: Like the previous game (and the one that follows), it’s hard to believe neither of these teams is ranked. Still, this is one of the most intriguing matchups early on in the Pac-12, mostly because Utah is trying to make a stamp on the league with a marquee win – and what better chance will it have to do just that than shocking the Trojans in the Coliseum. The scholarship reductions might finally be taking a toll on Lane Kiffin’s Men of Troy, as they barely scratched past Minnesota last week, 19-17. Utah had a lackluster 27-10 win over Montana State but you know it will be jazzed for this one.
Also Intriguing: USC sophomore receiver Robert Woods had a career for some players last week with 17 catches for 177 yards and three TDs vs. Minnesota.
Pick: Welcome to the party – Utes by 3

Game 3: Notre Dame (0-1) at Michigan (1-0)
When: 8 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
Line: ND by 3
Analysis: Some find this line puzzling given the Fighting Irish’s self-destruction in last week’s loss to South Florida and Michigan’s encouraging win over Western Michigan in which the Wolverines finally bucked up on defense and allowed just 10 points. Also, the week was filled with turmoil in South Bend as coach Brian Kelly made a change at QB and also was criticized for shouting down several players in the opener. And then you add in that this is UM’s first-ever home night game. Still, ND has more quality players than Michigan does right now, including star receiver Michael Floyd and a sturdy defensive line. And the Irish need to get on the right end of the scoreboard right now.
Also Intriguing: Michigan QB Denard Robinson is the X-factor in that the Irish need to at least slow him down. He compiled a ridiculous 502 yards of total offense in last year’s win over ND, a Michigan record.
Pick: Night terrors – Domers by 6

Game 4: Steelers at Ravens
When: 1 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Baltimore by 2½
Analysis: This is one of the marquee Week 1 matchups of the NFL season and never seems to disappoint considering the hard hitting and tight scores that usually ensue. However, Joe Flacco hasn’t fared too well against Pittsburgh’s blitzing schemes while Ben Roethlisberger seems to elevate the more fierce the battle. Plus, the Steelers tend to jump out to good starts for head coach Mike Tomlin. As is often the case, however, the winning team is going to need to run the football and the Ray Rice-Rashard Mendenhall matchup will be worth charting.
Also Intriguing: There have been a lot of hotshot safeties to come into the league in the last few years but do any backline guys affect the outcome of games more than Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed? Didn’t think so.
Pick: Hard to go against the Curtain – Pittsburgh by 3

Game 5: Eagles at Rams
When: 1 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Philly by 5
Analysis: While Philadelphia has made all the sexy offseason moves the Rams have made sensible pickups in the draft and via free agency to fill a lot of needs. And they want Sam Bradford and new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to take them to the next level this season. He might with more targets at which to throw and with Cadillac Williams now an able-bodied backup at running back behind Steven Jackson The Eagles, though have speed all over the field and especially at QB as a healthy Michael Vick will be scooting on a fast track. This might actually be a playoff preview.
Also Intriguing: The Rams decided to open the year with Danario Alexander as their deep threat at receiver despite the fact that he had nagging knee pain.
Pick: America’s new superteam gets a scare – Eagles by 1

Game 6: Panthers at Cardinals
When: 4:15 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Arizona by 7
Analysis: The quarterbacks come into focus at the pro level, maybe even too much, but it’s difficult not to be drawn by this battle – former Philly backup Kevin Kolb now at the controls in the desert and No. 1 overall pick and scintillating athlete Cam Newton under center for the Panthers. Carolina, though, has several problems. First, the Panthers were feeble at times on the road last season. Second, the Cardinals have more impact players, especially at receiver, where Larry Fitzgerald should appoint the fading Steve Smith. And third, Kolb at least has some valuable game experience. Newton, meanwhile, will be in his first NFL rodeo.
Also Intriguing: Arizona has a chance to grab hold of the weak NFC West. The Cardinals next face beatable teams at Washington and Seattle and return home to host the injury-ravaged Giants in Week 4.
Pick: This ain’t Auburn, Mr. Heisman – Cards by 13

Enjoy the games!

Rapp's 6-Pack: Week 1

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 15:32:00 GMT

Thanks for popping open the 6-Pack. We intend to have a lot of fun with this segment and maybe, just maybe, inform and enlighten along the way.

Is there anything better than flipping the channels on the remote on a football Saturday or Sunday and assessing how awe-inspiring your prognostication genius is? Of course not.

The birth of children would be up there, sure, but if your child is born on a football weekend like my son was 11 season openers ago, well, let’s just say a little bit of the joy is diminished.

And the best part about the 6-Pack is you don’t have to do anything. You can simply point a finger at me and laugh as I stumble along trying to predict the unpredictable – football.

Each week I’ll take a stab at six games – some of marquee status and some not – from both the collegiate and professional ranks. And I will do so without a net, meaning I will try to pick against the point spread. (Please, don’t try this at home or near sharp objects.)

Remember, this is all done for entertainment purposes only. In no way am I encouraging anybody to go out and blow hard-earned cashola on ballgames. Also, I will include Ohio State games on here from time to time when I have a strong hunch, but those picks will be based just on that – a hunch, and not because of any treasured inside information.

This first week there are only college games on the ledger but I will mix in NFL games thereafter.

OK, now you know what this is all about. The results from last week, up-to-year totals, perfect predictions (if there are any) and this week’s picks are below:

Last week’s picks: n/a
Record for last season: 65-32-5
Nailed right on the head: n/a

Game 1: Northwestern at Boston College
When: noon Eastern (ESPNU)
Line: BC by 3
Analysis: This was supposed to be a perfect stage for Northwestern and can-do coach Pat Fitzgerald to show the Wildcats truly are up-and-coming. But that emergence likely will be on hold thanks to news that star quarterback Dan Persa will not play because of a flare-up of his Achilles tendon. Without Persa, who had made some Heisman watch lists, NU is going to have to hope sophomore Kain Colter can find an experienced contingent of receivers. The Golden Eagles, meanwhile, don’t mind rolling up their sleeves and getting after people on defense – and the game plan could be for more aggression than normal.
Also Intriguing: BC lost five straight games last season, rallied to win five in a row and landed a bowl berth before losing a hardfought 20-13 decision to Nevada.
Pick: ’Cats can’t figure out a way – Eagles by 9

Game 2: South Florida at No. 16 Notre Dame
When: 3:30 p.m. Eastern (NBC)
Line: Notre Dame by 11
Analysis: We keep hearing how Notre Dame is back. We heard it all through the Charlie Weis era and there are a lot of Brian Kelly believers as well. The truth is, though, that ND has not competed well on the high stage of late because of a lack of athletic ability on defense. Kelly is altering the roster on that side of the ball and changing the mentality as well. In fact, the Irish have a very formidable defensive front, which is going to be vital looking at the schedule. Plus, ND does have some offensive firepower. But given all the hype that QB Dan Crist has received, his numbers were far from spectacular last season. He’ll no doubt elevate his game in 2011, but this is certainly a tester out of the chute.
Also Intriguing: The Fighting Irish face three Big Ten teams in the following four weeks – Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue.
Pick: Could get a little Bullish out there – Domers by 6

Game 3: Western Michigan at Michigan
When: 3:30 p.m. Eastern (ESPN2)
Line: UM by 14
Analysis: I’ve said it and written it many times – Michigan’s defense of a year ago was one of the most dreadful I’ve ever seen for a Big Ten team. The Wolverines couldn’t stop a bathtub. But that is about to change with new coach Brady Hoke back in town. Hoke is restoring pride to the defensive side of the ball and Maize and Blue are going to be very intent to make a statement against one of the better passing attacks in the MAC. Michigan is going to have to pressure QB Alex Carder and unleash Denard Robinson on a suspect back seven. That should be enough to allow UM fans to walk in public again.
Also Intriguing: Carder threw for 3,334 yards and 30 touchdowns last season.
Pick: Brady’s bunch rises to the challenge – Michigan by 19

Game 4: San Jose State at No. 7 Stanford
When: 5 p.m. Eastern (CSBA)
Line: Stanford by 30
Analysis: I haven’t bothered to break down every facet of Stanford’s team for this season. But I know the Cardinal was very legitimate last year because of a solid defense, sound special teams, a better-than-competent running game and quarterback Andrew Luck. The junior is a 6-4, 235-pound dream of a signal caller – smart, athletic, accurate and loaded with play-making ability. San Jose will have nary an answer or be able to do anything to keep him from adding to his already astounding highlight reel. Stanford is a top-10 outfit even without head coach Jim Harbaugh. San Jose State, well, you’d have to start at the other end of the list of 120 FBS schools to find it right away.
Also Intriguing: New Stanford coach David Shaw was Harbaugh’s offensive coordinator the past four years, which should greatly help maintain the offensive continuity.
Pick: There’s no boxing ref to call this one – Stanford by 49

Game 5: Indiana vs. Ball State
When: 7 p.m. Eastern (espn3.com)
Line: IU by 6
Analysis: OK, this is not a sexy game. However, it’s important for the Hoosiers, especially because new head coach Kevin Wilson has tried mightily to change the image of the program since taking over a few months ago. In fact, he bristled on live radio this summer when a pair of studio hosts jabbed IU’s weary tradition while introducing him. That show was based in Indianapolis, and that’s where this game will be played. Similarly, new Ball State head coach Pete Lembo is inheriting a team that went 4-8 last year and looks to be sliding out of regular MAC contention. However, the Cardinals don’t have much to offer as they’ve lost half their starters and have a sophomore QB, Keith Wenning, who is coming off freshman growing pains.
Also Intriguing: Ball State also is staring at nonconference trips to South Florida and Oklahoma this season.
Pick: Time to turn it – Hoosiers by 16

Game 6: No.3 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU
When: 8 p.m. Eastern (ABC)
Line: LSU by 4½
Analysis: Here we go. You want a blockbuster in Week 1, well here it is (Boise State vs. Georgia ain’t too shabby, either). Oregon endured an NCAA investigation into its recruiting practices but the Ducks should be able to overcome that bump and soar again this season. LaMichael James is back to tote the pig and Darron Thomas again is at the controls of one of the nation’s most dynamic offenses. The Tigers have gone through their own share of turmoil and will be without QB Jordan Jefferson. They can still win this game, though, by being disruptive defensively and controlling matters up front with their nasty offensive line. This should be a dandy.
Also Intriguing: This game will be staged at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, and should attract a bevy of LSU fans, but the Ducks shouldn’t be too intimidated. Plus, Thomas attended Aldine High School in Houston and will be playing before family and friends.
Pick: Another chance to conquer the SEC – Ducks by 3

Enjoy the games!

2011 Final Four

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 02 Apr 2011 19:50:33 GMT

I am not sure why I am trying this again.

I’m still a little dizzy after being piñata-ed by my predictions for Sweet 16 games. Of course, that includes Ohio State’s disappointing loss to Kentucky, Arizona’s stunning domination of Duke and Marquette’s total collapse against North Carolina. Those games tripped me up and the first two crushed most people’s brackets.

However, I did successfully predict Butler would take out Wisconsin and that VCU would outlast Florida State – I even had the Rams winning in overtime, which is almost spooky.

But who would have thought – me or anyone else – that VCU and Butler would still be standing and, in fact, preparing to face each other in one of two national semifinals this weekend? And Connecticut and Kentucky, while tradition-laden programs, weren’t exactly supposed to be in Houston, either.

However, those squads make up one of the most intriguing Final Fours of all time – the Davids meeting in the first game playing for the right to meet one of the Goliaths.

Each team arrives with a compelling story and with a bottled feeling of destiny.

UConn showcases perhaps the only true superstar remaining in the fray in guard Kemba Walker, a first-team All-American according to many services. The Huskies also have the most proven coach left standing, 68-year-old Jim Calhoun, who has brought a pair of national championship trophies back with him to Storrs.

But Kentucky coach John Calipari is no newcomer to the big stage. He came within a whisker of a title in 2008 while at Memphis behind the oncourt brilliance of Derrick Rose, only to watch Kansas steal the glory in overtime. He also led Marcus Camby and Massachusetts to the Final Four in 1996, but that season eventually belonged to, ironically, Kentucky.

Plus, Coach Cal’s best two postseason runs have been vacated because of rules violations, leaving many to wonder why UK would even hire him. Well, here is the answer: The guy knows how to get supreme talent and might trip into a national title while in Lexington. This Wildcats team certainly has an opportunity and even appears to be the favorite now with freshmen sensations Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones meshing well with veterans Josh Harrellson, DeAndre Liggins and Darius Miller.

Meanwhile, Butler is becoming the Kentucky of mid-major programs. The Bulldogs somehow lost five games in the Horizon League and were in danger of not even making the field but got hot at the right time. Guard Shelvin Mack and center Matt Howard, important cogs behind forward Gordon Hayward during last year’s improbable run to the national title game, are on top of their games at the moment and once again are figuring out how to make winning plays.

But the most amazing story has been Little-Engine-That-Could VCU. The Rams have navigated a path to the Final Four by beating USC in the First Four and then taking down, in order, Georgetown, Purdue, FSU and Kansas. And it’s the most recent win that has a long list of doubters now believing that this team could conceivably win it all. VCU jumped out on the Jayhawks, took their best shot and converted on several key possessions to salt away a very legitimate 71-61 win.

So a case could be made for any of the four teams left standing. But this is the Predictions segment of SportsRappUp.com and I actually have some confidence going into the Final Four considering I got both semifinals and the championship game correct when picking against the spread last season.

Here goes:

NATIONAL SEMIFINAL #1

Who: No. 11 VCU (28-11) vs. No. 8 Butler (27-9)
When: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. Eastern
Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston
Line: Butler by 2½
What To Watch: VCU plays with great tempo and moves with and without the ball freely. Coach Shaka Smart my be just 33 years old but he lives up to his name in the way he handles this outfit, keeps the positive vibes flowing and gets the Rams to share the basketball and believe in each other. Guard Joey Rodriguez (7.6 assists per game in the tournament) epitomizes this team with his hustle, quickness, tenacity and guts. He can find others while driving right into the teeth of traffic and has a knack for hitting big shots.

Bradford Burgess, a 6-6 wing, also has been sensational in the postseason. He has played at least 35 minutes in all five NCAA tourney games and has led the team in that time with 15.8 points and 1.6 blocks per game. With Burgess and forward Jamie Skeen buckling down defensively as well as scoring the ball, the Rams have improved dramatically in slowing down foes in March. They allowed opponents to shoot right around 44 percent from the field during the regular season and have shaved that number to 39 percent and allowed five fewer points per game in the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are equally efficient on both ends of the floor and have a hot inside-outside game going as well with Howard (16.7 ppg, 7.7 rebounds per game) his typical fearless self in the lane and Mack (21.3 ppg in the tournament) once again on fire from deep. He has shot just 34.1 percent on his three-pointers this season yet has canned 14 treys in the tournament, all of them seemingly well-timed.

Brad Stevens, Butler’s impeccable 34-year-old coach, appears to have every nuance covered and it’s no coincidence the Bulldogs thrive in late-game situations. However, of the four teams to reach Houston they have been the most fortunate by far. Butler needed a Howard basket at the buzzer out of a scramble play to upend Old Dominion in the first round, nipped top-seeded Pittsburgh controversially in the ensuing round and had to go overtime to get by Florida in the Elite Eight.

Key Matchup: Butler’s team defense vs. Skeen.

The Bulldogs really aren’t overly impressive statistically with their shooting even though they don’t face a lot of great athletes in league play. They shoot 44.3 percent from the field and 35.5 percent from long range, which shows their reliance on hitting timely shots and defending consistently. They do a great job of making teams shoot out of their comfort areas, a ploy that nearly allowed them to upset Duke in last year’s championship game.

However, Skeen (15.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg) is a wild card. A 6-9, 240-pound forward who is effective out of just about any halfcourt set, Skeen shoots 51.6 percent from the floor and 40.2 percent from behind the arc. And even if he’s denied looks at the basket he can muscle inside and get crucial putbacks. A former Wake Forest performer who transferred to VCU in 2008, Skeen has been around the block and fears no pressure situation. In short, he’s a headache for any team.

My Call: It’s just difficult for me to believe that the Rams are going to beat teams from the Pac-10, Big East, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 to get here and then bow out against a Horizon League team. Granted, Butler is not your typical mid-major, to be sure. Still, VCU’s bold attempt to be the lowest seed to advance all the way to the championship game is stirring – and the Rams are for real. It’s time to put the number away and simply look at the body of work. VCU has wiped out everyone in its path except Florida State, and even that game serves as proof that the Rams can get it done in a tight contest. They are cohesive and unpredictable on offense and the defensive effort has been stellar. If there is a loose ball, VCU is a good bet to snatch it. As tough an out as Butler is, I’m going with the Commonwealth.
Rams by 3

NATIONAL SEMIFINAL #2

Who: No. 4 Kentucky (29-8) vs. No. 3 Connecticut (30-9)
When: Saturday, approx. 8:49 p.m. Eastern
Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston
Line: Kentucky by 2
What To Watch: A lot of highly athletic and fierce players.

There’s a reason why programs such as these go after top-rated talent from the East, Midwest and South. They have played pressure-cooker basketball at the prep and AAU level and are proven commodities even when facing other well-regarded players.

Take Kentucky, for example. A product of Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Knight (17.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.2 apg) was the hero of several high school and AAU games and then hit the game-winning shot in the McDonald’s All-America Game in Columbus last year. This March, his talent translated and his confidence carried over as he hit a difficult scoop shot in the final seconds of a two-point win over Princeton and then victimized the Buckeyes with a 16-footer with Aaron Craft draped on him. Similarly, Jones (15.8. ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.9 bpg) has been comfortable in a key role as Calipari marched onward after losing five players – including four freshmen – as early entrants in last summer’s NBA draft. The team’s third-leading scorer is guard Doron Lamb (12.3 ppg), who also shows a great deal of promise.

But the Wildcats’ postseason run hasn’t been just about the new kids on the block. Harrellson (7.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) is playing the best basketball of his career and has held up well inside. Also, Liggins continues to show he can slow down the best wing players and still has managed to pick up his offense of late. Playing a roll similar to that of OSU’s David Lighty, Liggins leads UK in steals (44) and is second to Knight in assists (94).

Connecticut also has terrific athletes who play their roles to aplomb around Walker (23.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg), a 6-1 junior who meets every challenge he faces. He has averaged a Jimmer-like 26.8 points per game while firing up 18.3 shots per contest. He is asked to do a ton in Calhoun’s system and often has to create his own attempt with the shot clock winding down. Because of that, he shoots a very mortal 33.9 percent from behind the arc. But even against Arizona, when he was just 1 of 7 from deep, Walker still managed to score 20 points and dole out seven assists.

And that leads to the other point with UConn. After the Huskies won five games in five days to capture the Big East Tournament title, they have continued to find ways to get by quality opponents, dusting Bucknell and Cincinnati and outlasting San Diego State and U of A. The constant has been rebounding, which isn’t a surprise considering UConn ranks 11th in the nation in rpg with 39.6.

Key Matchup: Harrellson vs. UConn center Alex Oriakhi.

The 6-10 Harrellson came into the NCAA Tournament averaging just 6.8 ppg but has racked up 59 points in four contests including 17 against Ohio State. He is effective on pick-and-roll plays and his teammates now trust him in the half court.

Oriakhi matches up physically (6-9, 240) and statistically (9.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg) but he tends to get in foul trouble and has to be careful not to get overzealous with Harrellson. He’ll have his chances to make a statement of his own and he is UConn’s top shot blocker (1.6 bpg).

If one of these big men creates a decided advantage inside it could go a long way in advancing their team to the title game.

My Call: I don’t put any more stock in UConn’s 84-67 win over Kentucky in Hawaii than I do the fact that the Huskies were just 9-9 in the Big East regular season. The previous matchup was just the fifth game of the season for both teams and UK’s youngsters have grown leaps and bounds since that contest. So has UConn, which is as hot as any team in the nation right now.

The difference is Kentucky can get key stops when it needs to and does a little bit better job of spreading the wealth. If Walker has a subpar shooting night then his career likely will come to an end one game short of his goal.

This was supposed to be an Ohio State-UConn semifinal rematch reminiscent of 1999 only with the roles completely reversed. Unfortunately, though, for OSU fans, the Buckeyes didn’t finish the deal last weekend. Unfortunately for Connecticut and Calhoun, Calipari should be the coach who inches closer to a title.
Wildcats by 5

2011 Sweet 16

Jeff Rapp — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 22:45:00 GMT

I haven’t tried my hand at predictions since the Big Ten Tournament, which is probably a good thing considering how my NCAA Tournament bracket looks after the first two rounds. Ugh.

However, keep in mind this section of the site is for making picks against the spread, something I did at a high success rate (65 percent) throughout the NFL and college football season.

And it’s done for entertainment purposes only, so please don’t go plunk down hard-earned cash on some 11-seed because Ol’ Rapper thought it was worth a nibble.

We are down to the Sweet 16 and the hometown Buckeyes, the top-ranked team in the country, are still in the equation as they deal with the loaded East Regional. Kansas, meanwhile, appears to have a cakewalk in the Southwest Regional, but remember looks can be deceiving.

And while Duke, the other remaining 1-seed, also has to be favored to come out of California unscathed, there is danger lurking in the Elite Eight. And who knows what is going to happen in New Orleans, especially with Pittsburgh already bounced.

Plus, it’s no picnic trying to find the right side of these point spreads. But here goes:

WEST REGIONAL (Thursday)

Who: No. 2 San Diego State (34-2) vs. No. 3 Connecticut (28-9)
When: 7:15 p.m. Eastern
Where: Honda Center, Anaheim (Calif.)
Line: pick
What To Watch: Kemba Walker, what else? The high energy UConn guard will be the best player on the floor and is capable of going off at any moment as well as come through in the clutch. He averages 23.5 points per game and carried the Huskies through to the Big East Tournament title. However, SDSU has an unstoppable force of its own in Kawhi Leonard, a do-it-all forward who plays with a high motor all night. With Leonard leading the way at the head of a very active front line, the Aztecs should be able to cause a lot of UConn misses and more than hold up their end on the boards. The only problem is the Huskies are on a dose of adrenaline and simply are not going to go away. This is going to go down to a shot or a defensive stand.
My Call: Connecticut’s amazing postseason run has to come to an end sooner or later and here’s leaning on sooner.
Aztecs by 3

Who: No. 1 Duke (32-4) vs. No. 5 Arizona (29-7)
When: approx 9:45 p.m. Eastern
Where: Honda Center, Anaheim (Calif.)
Line: Duke by 8½
What To Watch: Just about every team that has won the NCAA Tournament since the field has expanded to 64 teams (now 68) has had an early scare along the way. It’s quite possible Duke just endured its fright. The Blue Devils and their fans had to hold their breaths as Michigan guard Darius Morris raced the other way with UM trailing just 73-71 when the sophomore guard back-ironed a runner in the final seconds. It appeared he had a kick-out pass for a possible game-winning three but we’ll never know. Mike Krzyzewski should have the attention of his team now and the matchups are favorable for Duke. Plus, point guard Kyrie Irving has had a full week to continue his recovery. The X-factor, though, is Arizona forward Derrick Williams, easily one of the top players in the country. Williams averages 19.1 ppg and 8.1 rebounds per game and has been super clutch in wins over Memphis and Texas. Duke can’t let this game go down to a possession again.
My Call: Message will be received and the Wildcats won’t be able to keep up.
Blue Devils by 11

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL (Thursday)

Who: No. 2 Florida (28-7) vs. No. 3 BYU (32-4)
When: 7:27 p.m. Eastern
Where: New Orleans Arena, New Orleans
Line: Florida by 3
What To Watch: The Jimmer. There simply isn’t a more dazzling and productive performer in this tournament than Jimmer Fredette. The senior guard has even more onus on him with center Brandon Davies out of commission because of a violation of the school code. And normally that would mean doom at this level of the postseason against a 2-seed. But Fredette draws so much attention that he should be able to set up teammates and also make a bushel of buckets himself. The Gators have balance and experience but don’t really have a takeover player and aren’t overly sticky defensively against quality teams. In fact, they struggled in their last two meetings with Kentucky. To get this done, though, BYU is going to have to play outstanding help defense to keep Florida from pounding it inside and to cut off driving lanes for quick guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker.
My Call: Jimmer time.
Cougars by 2

Who: No. 4 Wisconsin (25-8) vs. No. 8 Butler (25-9)
When: approx 9:57 p.m. Eastern
Where: New Orleans Arena, New Orleans
Line: Wisconsin by 5
What To Watch: The Badgers limped into this tournament after getting scorched by 28 points in Columbus and falling apart offensively in Indianapolis in a 36-33 loss – yes, you read that right – to Penn State. However, Bo Ryan has rallied his team to post a solid win over dangerous Belmont and a 70-65 survival against talented Kansas State. Butler also has found new life, especially after last weekend’s stunning and somewhat controversial upset of Pitt. What got lost in that performance was how well the Bulldogs handled late-game situations other than the unfortunate foul along the sideline in the final seconds. Butler is not the same team that advanced all the way to the title game last year. After all, forward Gordon Hayward is gone. But Shelvin Mack is still a headache at guard much like UW’s Jordan Taylor and Matt Howard (16.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg) can offset the production of Wisconsin’s Jon Leuer (18.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg).
My Call: If Butler is right, these teams are mirror images or each other – and Butler just got right.
Bulldogs by 1

EAST REGIONAL (Friday)

Who: No. 2 North Carolina (28-7) vs. No.11 Marquette (22-14)
When: 7:15 p.m. Eastern
Where: Prudential Center, Newark (N.J.)
Line: North Carolina by 4½
What To Watch: Marquette’s grit will be on display and intoxicating even if hardly anyone can name one of its players – although you’ve got to love Junior Cadougan. Insomniac coach Buzz Williams is getting the most out of this team and the Golden Eagles’ wins over Xavier and Syracuse were no fluke. North Carolina possesses all the advantages on paper, though, and the Tar Heels’ ability to dump the ball inside in halfcourt sets should not be underplayed. Also, the Heels have found another gear since Kendall Marshall took over at the point. The only problem is UNC often is content to just trade baskets and doesn’t like to expend a lot of energy putting up resistance on the defensive end. And if North Carolina doesn’t open up a comfortable lead then Marquette is going to be right where it hopes to be – in a dogfight.
My Call: Roy Williams breathes another big sigh of relief.
Tar Heels by 2

Who: No. 1 Ohio State (34-2) vs. No. 4 Kentucky (27-8)
When: approx 9:45 p.m. Eastern
Where: Prudential Center, Newark (N.J.)
Line: Ohio State by 5½
What To Watch: Kentucky has all the parts necessary to play with a team like Ohio State. John Calipari, as usual, is blessed with a stellar young point guard, dynamic wings, and big men who can shoot, rebound and run the floor. If you were going to construct a powerhouse college basketball team it would look a lot like UK’s personnel. However, the Buckeyes are too together, too loose, too balanced and too experienced to pick against them right now. They put on a shooting display in Cleveland and also showed their capability defensively. It’s possible they could even overwhelm the young Wildcats in this game, but not likely. UK has a pair of solid rebounders in Josh Harrelson and Terrence Jones while Doron Lamb and DeAndre Liggins can cause turnovers and score the ball. But the real headache is Brandon Knight, and that’s where OSU’s Aaron Craft comes into the picture. Knight was a McDonald’s All-American while Craft was barely recruited at the major conference level, but Craft can put this win in Thad Matta’s pocket if he can slow down his highly talented counterpart. Look for Craft to come in early and never leave the floor thereafter.
My Call: Defense and unselfishness are the difference.
Buckeyes by 7

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL (Friday)

Who: No. 1 Kansas (34-2) vs. No. 12 Richmond (29-7)
When: 7:15 p.m. Eastern
Where: Alamodome, San Antonio
Line: Kansas by 10½
What To Watch: This is purely a hunch, because I am well aware of KU’s gaudy record, talent level and supposedly easy path to the Final Four: I just think Richmond is going to show it’s for real. The Spiders are the definition of a solid basketball team. They are above average in every key aspect of the game and they play with a continuity that can’t be overlooked. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Richmond scare the bejeezus out of Kansas, especially if the Jayhawks take this game lightyly and look like a team that’s been told for a week how cushy their bracket is. Still, Kansas can come at teams in waves and score in bunches. And the Morris twins – Marcus and Markieff have been hard to slow down inside so far. The Spiders did a respectable job on Morehead State’s Kenneth Faried but this is a case of double trouble.
My Call: Moral victories are still not good enough.
Jayhawks by 6

Who: No. 10 Florida State (23-10) vs. No. 11 VCU (26-11)
When: approx 9:57 p.m. Eastern
Where: Alamodome, San Antonio
Line: Florida State by 3½
What To Watch: The Rams of Virginia Commonwealth are as tournament hot as anybody with a play-in win over USC and victories in the second and third rounds against Georgetown and Purdue, respectively. Why would anyone think they are incapable of beating 10th-seeded Florida State? Well, they shouldn’t but the Seminoles can’t be taken lightly, either. They can defend with the best of them and have versatile forward Chris Singleton rounding into form. VCU has been led by guard Joey Rodriguez, who has compiled 37 points, 23 assists and just three turnovers in the three games. Forward Jamie Skeen (15,2 ppg, 7.3 rpg) also can get hot. Florida State was impressive in dismantling Notre Dame last weekend but can go cold offensively for long spells of games. Another late-night yawner or worthy of staying up until midnight?
My Call: These two teams close out the fourth round of the tourney and simply don’t want to go away and end the ride. Therefore, I foresee ...
VCU by 2 (in overtime)

2011 Big Ten Tournament

Jeff Rapp — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 17:49:04 GMT

“Tressel-mania” isn’t going away any time soon, but the Ohio State basketball team is making its getaway from Columbus and will be back in Indianapolis to defend its Big Ten Tournament title.

And that should provide a nice entertaining diversion for Buckeye fans, especially given the way OSU has played of late.

“If we keep playing like we’ve been the last five or six games, it’s going to be pretty hard to beat us,” senior David Lighty said.

After wiping out Penn State and Wisconsin in the final week of the regular season, the Buckeyes (29-2) are the 1-seed for the second consecutive year and the fifth time in the 14 years of the tournament. OSU head coach Thad Matta has made it clear he will sell out to win the event again even though the Buckeyes, the top-ranked team in both major polls, are a lock for a 1-seed in the NCAA tourney.

However, the Buckeyes are bracketed to face teams that desperately need a signature win at Conseco Fieldhouse to take the NCAA Tournament field, which could make for some rough sledding.

“No more than probably what we’ve faced throughout the course of this season,” Matta said, “from winning our first 24 games to being ranked No. 1 in the country. It appears to me that we’ve seen just about everybody’s best shot that they could give us, and I think that will help us in this situation, I really believe that.”

That’s the Matta M.O. – always see the positive. It’s why he said years ago he stopped going into postseason tournaments hoping to avoid certain teams and now embraces all possible challenges. Whatever he’s doing, it sure seems to work at this time of year.

Matta is in his 11th year as a head coach – one at Butler, three at Xavier and seven at OSU. In his previous 10 he has led his team to the championship game of the conference tournament seven times.

He didn’t have a theory behind his success, however, other than to admit the competitive juices always manage to flow during conference touneys.

“To me, these things are more for the players and the fans,” he said. “You go in and the thing I like about it is, you lose and you go home, and you hope that that helps build your mind-set. It’s a lot of basketball in a short period of time if you continue to win.”

And the urgency does kick in when you realize you are on equal footing with the other 10 league teams, Lighty said.

“Everyone’s record is 0-0, everybody’s got a clean slate,” he said. “The regular season really doesn’t mean anything now. You’ve got to come ready to play. We’ve got 120 minutes, hopefully, until our mission is complete.”

The tournament will be staged at Conseco Fieldhouse for the fourth straight year as the Big Ten Conference currently is in the midst of a five-year agreement with the facility for both the men’s and women’s championships. The Ohio State women just took the crown for the third straight year last weekend and claimed the conference’s automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament.

The men’s tournament tips off with three games today and concludes on Sunday, March 13, leading CBS right into its highly popular “Selection Show” the announcement of the NCAA pairings.

The Big Ten Tournament bracket, of course, is based on the regular-season standings. But high seeds don’t always guarantee deep runs. On the flip side, seeds out of the sixth, eighth, ninth, 10th and 11th spots have made four-day runs and advanced all the way to the championship game, proving the little guy has a chance.

Six different league members have won the tournament: Michigan State (1999, 2000), Illinois (2003, 2005), Iowa (2001, 2006), Wisconsin (2004, 2008) and Ohio State (2007, 2010) claimed the honor twice and Purdue captured the crown in 2009. Actually, OSU also won the 2002 tournament but the title was vacated because of NCAA sanctions. Similarly, Michigan's championship in the original BTT in 1998 also has been wiped away.

The following is a look at the seedings, matchups and how the 10 Big Ten Tournament games might play out:

Thursday, March 10 – Round 1
Game 1: No. 8 Northwestern (17-12) vs. No. 9 Minnesota (17-13)
Time, TV: 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN2
Analysis: The toughest game to call might be the first one out of the chute. These two teams split the season series, each winning by 11 points on their home floor. You’d have to checkmark Minnesota on toughness and inside force but NU has an edge with point guard Michael Thompson and should be able to stay right with the Golden Gophers if it can manage a few timely outside shots. Still, Tubby Smith should be able to will his team through here, even though Minnesota has lost nine of its last 10, including a 68-57 decision at Northwestern on March 2.
Pick: Gophers by 3

Game 2: No. 7 Michigan State (17-13) vs. No. 10 Iowa (11-19)
Time, TV: approx. 5 p.m. Eastern, ESPN2
Analysis: This is a strange predicament for Tom Izzo but its been a very strange season for his Spartans. Picked to win the Big Ten and contend for the national title in all the preseason mags, Michigan State has found disaster with player defections, petty squabbles and amazingly inconsistent basketball. Iowa, meanwhile, is still high off an upset of Purdue on Senior Day and coach Fran McCaffrey had a stellar tournament record while at Siena. Still, this is Michigan State and Kalin Lucas Draymond Green should be able to affect this game positively. Plus, Sparty needs a win badly to feel any assurance of gaining an at-large NCAA Tournament berth. But it won’t be easy.
Pick: Spartans by 2 (in overtime)

Game 3: No. 6 Penn State (16-13) vs. No. 11 Indiana (12-19)
Time, TV: 7:30 p.m. Eastern, Big Ten Network
Analysis: You can’t make me watch this entire game. I dare you. How many people will be left at Conseco when a 6-seed that is three games over .500 takes on league doormat Indiana. That’s right – all the ones who bothered to drive up from Bloomington. This is all IU and wacky head coach Tom Crean left: Some distant hope that there could be some tournament magic afoot. Well, it’s not happening. These two teams haven’t played since Dec. 27 but the result will be the same.
Pick: Nittany Lions by 9

Friday, March 11 – Quarterfinals
Game 4: NU-Minnesota winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State (29-2)
Time, TV: noon Eastern, ESPN
Analysis: Last year, the top-seeded Buckeyes needed a 37-foot heave by Player of the Year Evan Turner to survive a monumental effort by rival Michigan and avoid a very early exit. This time, OSU arrives on top of its game and with reason to want a good showing here. The Buckeyes nipped Minnesota at home by three points and won at Northwestern just 58-57, leaving many to question in January if they were really worthy of their lofty ranking. Ohio State isn’t going to can 14 of 15 threes as it did Sunday in a 23-point blowout of Wisconsin but it won’t be required to advance here, even if it is lengthy Minnesota.
Pick: Buckeyes by 14

Game 5: No. 4 Michigan (19-12) vs. No. 5 Illinois (19-12)
Time, TV: approx. 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Analysis: Each of these teams fared 9-9 in conference play and each is equally in need of a win here to make a hearty case for an NCAA tourney spot. Illinois won the only matchup between the two, a 54-52 win in Champaign, further illustrating how close these teams are. The Illini have more experience and likely will benefit from more fan support. However, UM has more momentum with wins in six of its last eight games and coach John Beilein appears to be sewing together his young talent. OSU fans should be rooting for UI but they aren’t going to get their wish.
Pick: Wolverines by 5

Game 6: MSU-Iowa winner vs. No. 2 Purdue (25-6)
Time, TV: 6:30 p.m. Eastern, Big Ten Network
Analysis: Iowa actually blew out Michigan State at home and also capped off the regular season with a win over Purdue as previously mention, but let’s proceed assuming Michigan State will be the opponent as I predicted. The Spartans may think March is their time to shine again but they simply don’t match up well at all with Purdue. The Boilermakers present a major mismatch with 6-10 JaJuan Johnson and also defend the perimeter well and can hang with MSU on the boards. I’ve seen this movie before.
Pick: Boilers by 8

Game 7: PSU-Indiana winner vs. No. 3 Wisconsin (23-7)
Time, TV: approx 9 p.m. Eastern, Big Ten Network
Analysis: Since there is no reason to believe Indiana will live to see this game, it’s Penn State that receives the “honor” in playing in the 3-6 game, which always manages to be the redheaded stepchild of the tournament. These games, for whatever reason, tend to be foul prone and drag into the midnight hour and are completely out of the national glare. That’s just how Wisconsin likes it – and you know Bo Ryan doesn’t want to follow Sunday’s debacle with a clunker in Indy.
Pick: Badgers by 6

Saturday, March 12 – Semifinals
Game 8: NU, Minnesota or OSU vs. UM-Illinois winner
Time, TV: 1:40 p.m. Eastern, CBS
Analysis: This will be the day we find out how much winning this tournament really means to the Buckeyes. I say that because Michigan is coming together nicely and its veteran players would nothing more than to knock off the nation’s No. 1 team and play it back for last year’s miracle shot. Michigan will be pumped and ready to go, and point guard Darius Morris can be a handful, even for OSU’s Aaron Craft. If Morris is creating open shots, Michigan can hang in this game and put the pressure on Ohio State. It’s hard to go against the Buckeyes the way they are playing, but, let’s face it, there would be nothing devastating about a loss here. Which is why I’ve got a danger button on this one. But we’ll play it safe.
Pick: Buckeyes by 4

Game 9: MSU, Iowa or Purdue vs. PSU, Indiana or Wisconsin
Time, TV: approx. 4:10 p.m. Eastern, CBS
Analysis: Following my picks, this game would pit Purdue against Wisconsin, and the two had an entertaining series this season. The Badgers knocked off the visiting Boilers 66-59 on Feb. 1 as part of a perfect home record, but Purdue, which also was unscathed at home, won the rematch in West Lafayette 15 days later, 70-62. That put Matt Painter’s team in the driver’s seat for second place and in position to catch Ohio State at the finish line. That dream fell short at Iowa March 5, but Purdue won seven straight prior to that close defeat and still has the parts to make a postseason statement. Here’s guessing PU does just that.
Pick: Boilers by 11

Sunday, March 13 – Finals
Game 10: winners of top and bottom bracket
Time, TV: 3:30 p.m. Eastern, CBS
Analysis: OK, it’s not risky to pick a 1 vs. 2 matchup, although sometimes it’s foolish given how often upsets occur in this event. Still, if the Buckeyes survive the Saturday scare they will put plenty of effort into this contest and be very intent to cut down the Conseco nets once again. Purdue, on the other hand, also would arrive here with confidence and renewed momentum. OSU downed PU 87-64 in Columbus thanks to 55.2-percent shooting from the field in one its most impressive performances of the season. The Boilermakers delivered some payback in a 76-63 win over OSU on Feb. 20 thanks to a 38-point explosion by guard E’Twaun Moore. Its time for these two to stage a white-knuckler.
Pick: Buckeyes by 3

Super Bowl XLV

Jeff Rapp — Sun, 06 Feb 2011 19:34:00 GMT

I was listening to the radio the other day and the host was discussing the impending Super Bowl and mentioned that he just couldn’t conceive of Ben Roethlisberger making any mistakes or even – get this – throwing an incompletion in the game.

Um, I know the guy is a proven big-game quarterback. In fact, he’s 8-2 in postseason games. And I know he’s won two Super Bowls.

But when did this guy become a football deity? Seriously. Last I checked he was suspended for four games this year for, at best, egregious off-the-field behavior.

And no team in the NFL has been more fortunate this season than the Steelers. This is a team that won at Buffalo only because a receiver let a touchdown go right through his arms and won at Miami on easily the worst call of the season.

During the second half of the season the Steelers were outclassed at home by the Patriots and the Jets, beat a bunch of really awful teams and logged one real eye-opening win, a 13-10 survival at Baltimore that could have gone either way.

Yes, Pittsburgh beat those same Ravens and Jets in the playoffs and made key plays down the stretch but they didn’t exactly tear through Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers, either.

And, believe it or not, not every pass Roethlisberger has thrown this year has not been for a highlight-reel touchdown. He – you might want to sit down for this Mr. radio host – actually has 149 incompletions this year and five interceptions. He’s also been sacked 32 times even though we’ve been told for two weeks straight that he’s too crafty, too strong and too determined to be pulled down.

Is Ben Roethlisberger a great player and a very dangerous quarterback? You better believe he is. And he’s even more dangerous with that very solid Pittsburgh running game, those excellent special teams and a defense that is nothing short of menacing when superstars Troy Polamalu and James Harrison are healthy.

But we since most of us in this discussion are based in the Midwest the perception is that Super Bowl XLV is all about Pittsburgh and the crowning of the greatest franchise in the history of the big game. Maybe so, but I don’t think so.

First of all, the Green Bay Packers are not favored because of an accident. They’re favored because Aaron Rodgers, not Ben Roethlisberger, has been the most consistently outstanding quarterback this season and the more explosive one in the playoffs. And he has thrown for 3,922 yards and 28 touchdowns with less help from the threat of the run. He also may be as good or better than Big Ben at knowing when to exit a collapsing pocket and burn defenses with his legs. He’s also more accurate.

Is he proven on this stage? No, not yet. And for that reason many analysts are leaning toward Pittsburgh, which is somewhat understandable. But what happened in Super Bowls in the 1970s with Terry Bradshaw at the controls doesn’t have anything more to do with this game than what Bart Starr did in the 1960s.

This is 2010 Pittsburgh vs. 2010 Green Bay, a terrific and very evenly matched ballgame.

Both defensive coordinators, Dick LeBeau and Dom Capers are absolutely stellar and probably the best in the business at mixing up alignments and coverages without getting overly cute. Both defenses cycle in effective zone blitz packages and the DCs manage to push the right buttons at the right time.

As much as Polamalu and Harrison affect other teams, the Packers have playmakers of their own at those positions in the form of Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews Jr. The lines are active and versatile. The secondaries are aggressive. The linebackers simply smack people. If Pittsburgh gets the check mark for being more physical it also could be argued that Green Bay is better at takeaways.

This game is just as likely to have defensive standouts as it is offensive ones.

But it’s the Super Bowl, the most overhyped and overmarketed event we have in this country, and the media will go to great lengths to dummy this down to the battle at quarterback.

Roethlisberger is a beast, no question. He knows how to make plays. He knows how to win. And his game-winning toss to the side of the end zone to Santonio Holmes a couple years ago may go down as the single greatest throw in the history of the Super Bowl.

But Rodgers is going to have even more opportunity to expose the back end of the opposing defense. He’s going to be willing to run away from onrushers and avoid collisions with the likes of Harrison and Polamalu. He’s going to show he has an even deeper array of throws at his disposal.

And he’s going to be kissing a metallic football trophy on a makeshift platform in the middle of Cowboys Stadium at about 10 p.m. Eastern.

Here is my breakdown on tonight’s game:

SUPER BOWL XLV

Who: Steelers (14-4) vs. Packers (13-6)
When: 6:29 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Where: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Line: Green Bay by 2½

Path To The Final: Winners of the AFC North, Pittsburgh won two home games, besting rival Baltimore 31-24 and hanging on to take out the cocky New York Jets 24-19 in the AFC championship game.

Green Bay had to slip by rival Chicago in the final week of the regular season just to make the postseason field of 12 then got hot. In three straight road games, the Packers dumped Philadelphia 21-16 in a wildcard matchup, dusted Atlanta 48-21 and toppled Chicago 21-14.

What To Watch: Tempo.

The Steelers want the game to be choppy and physical. The Packers, while they are certainly capable of holding up in such a pace, would rather get into a rhythm and put together a couple nine-play scoring drives.

Pittsburgh will go with a quick count at times and bleed the play clock in others. The Steelers also like to force teams into all-or-nothing plays by bringing bodies from all kinds of angles on defense.

Rodgers can tilt matters back in G.B.’s favor by hitting hot reads and calling effective audibles for running plays like sweeps that keep the chains moving in the right direction. This will be a gamelong cat-and-mouse exercise.

Key Facet: The Steelers waited until late in the week to declare rookie center Maurkice Pouncey as out because of a nagging sprain to his left ankle. A product of Florida, Pouncey has been outstanding all season and a true anchor to the offensive line. The Steelers ran the ball with power and precision against the Jets without him but don’t figure to be quite as effective against the sturdy Packers.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin isn’t one to panic or alter the game plan, which will be to provide Roethlisberger with the proper balance. But if the middle of the line struggles without Pouncey, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians might have to go away from pet plays.

Key matchup: Green Bay’s receivers vs. Polamalu.

The Packers are one of the best teams in the league at hitting the slant route. Veterans Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are good at getting inside of defenders and are not afraid to go over the middle. Rodgers is very, very adept at timing his throws into those areas of the field. Polamalu’s job will be to, ahem, foil that plan. Nobody in football is better or more willing to throw his body around and Polamalu could change the course of the game by causing a huge turnover. But he also takes risks, and that could open a wide door for the Packers (think Larry Fitzgerald running free against the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII).

Packers by 6

NFL Championship Games

Jeff Rapp — Sun, 23 Jan 2011 17:40:30 GMT

When I was a child, Kermit the Frog once sang to me and told me “It’s Not Easy Being Green.”

It was an emotional moment, for I never knew the real plight of an amphibian puppet.

Well, the New York Jets and Green Bay Packers have a chance to quash all that as two proud, tradition-rich franchises just might be on their way to a collision course in Super Bowl XLV. Standing in their way, however, are, well, two proud, tradition-rich franchises.

The Packers are rolling and favored but they still have to win on the road and overcome their fiercest rival, the Chicago Bears. The two teams have met an amazing 181 times, including twice again this season. In fact, they just hooked up a few weeks at the conclusion of the NFL’s regular-season docket and it was the Packers who prevailed in a slugfest, 10-3, to leap into the playoff tournament.

The Bears had nothing to play for that day other than to try to knock their archenemies out of the picture, and now they have to deal with Aaron Rodgers and company again in the NFC championship to reach the Super Bowl. But they will get their shot at Soldier Field, which will be frozen-tundra-like in its own right.

On the AFC side of things, the brash Jets, still high on life after dumping New England in Foxboro on Sunday, get to relish the underdog role again as they face the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field. Just like the first game, this battle will be fierce, physical and staged before drunkards imitating icicles. In other words, perfect NFL theater.

The Steelers have won a record six Super Bowls and have the most accomplished quarterback in the remaining field as Ben Roethlisberger already has a couple rings to his credit. They also have a stout defense that plays with an attitude – but so do the Jets, Bears and Packers.

It should be a memorable football Sunday and once again I will take my stab at predicting the outcome of the two title games.

I posted a record of 64-33-5 in Rapp’s 6-Pack this season and last week I handicapped all four NFL playoff games, coming out with a 2-2 mark. For the season I am 28-21-3 on NFL games vs. the spread.

Now we move onto the NFL final four. Here goes:

NFC Championship: Packers (12-6) at Bears (12-5)
When: Sun., 3 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Green Bay by 3½
Analysis: Being a Rams fan I would be happy to see Lovie Smith and Mike Martz rekindling the magic they discovered in St. Louis a decade ago and hugging each other at the conclusion of this game. Lovie is a defensive guy who believes in playing with toughness, passion and respect. Martz is an offensive genius who can’t ever be counted out in a big game like this. But he also plays a high-risk style that leaves quarterbacks vulnerable to sacks and interceptions. Even though this should be a low-scoring, in-the-trenches kind of battle, eventually Martz will dial up something gutsy and it will be up to Jay Cutler to execute it. That is a dicey situation to me, because while Cutler has the natural talent worthy of this stage he’s also the QB of the four who is most prone to a boneheaded decision. Chicago did win the regular-season meeting between these two teams, 20-17, but the Packers committed a ridiculous 18 penalties in that contest. That isn’t going to happen again. Plus, Rodgers is absolutely on fire at the moment. He was a sensational 31 of 36 for 366 yards in the 48-21 bludgeoning of top-seeded Atlanta last week and has thrown six touchdown passes and no interceptions in the playoffs. The Bears will slow down some of that onslaught with a dangerous pass rush and linebacker Brian Urlacher creating havoc in the middle of the field but Rodgers is still ultra-effective escaping pressure and either throwing on the run or merely rambling for the yards he can get with his feet. Plus, the Packers are just as hot on the defensive side of the ball with coordinator Dom Capers dialing up the right calls and Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams looking for takeaways in the secondary. And while Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Julius Peppers all can provide heat for the Bears, nobody has done it better this season than the Packers’ Clay Matthews Jr. and his free-flowing locks. Who’s going to run the ball better? That may not matter for once. If Rodgers makes enough plays and the Green Bay defense confuses Cutler enough, the Pack will be back – in Dallas, that is.
Pick: Brett who? – Packers by 10

AFC Championship: Jets (13-5) at Steelers (13-4)
When: Sun., 6:30 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Pittsburgh by 3½
Analysis: It’s all about how you look at this one. For instance, Roethlisberger has basically the exact same statistics as Mark Sanchez despite being suspended for four games, which means he’s been more effective. Then again, Sanchez, who is 4-1 in postseason games, has done as much as Big Ben has this season and comes in as a hot commodity as well after the Jets dumped Indianapolis and New England. Mike Tomlin has a quiet confidence and Rex Ryan is a self-important blowhard but each of them has struck the right chord – and elicited the proper intensity – from his players. And while the Pittsburgh defense is a marvel with James Harrison and Troy Polamalu making consistent plays with reckless abandon, the Jets have some difference-makers on that side of the ball as well such as Darrelle Revis, Jason Taylor and Bart “They can’t stop a nosebleed” Scott. Special teams could shift either way with Pittsburgh able to make big return yardage and possibly taking advantage of struggling Jets punter Steve Weatherford. However, the Jets could tilt the game with Brad Smith involved and a more reliable placekicking situation. In the end, the Steelers are supposed to win in “Sixburgh” and they just might – after all, Polamalu is the best player in the entire league as far as I’m concerned – but what the Jets have done to this point and how they’ve done it can’t be ignored. If they stuff Roethlisberger and put him on the mantle next to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady they will live up to their own crowing and would have to be considered the favorites in the Super Bowl. And there is precedence for what they are trying to do. They already won in Pittsburgh during the regular season, 22-17, although they needed a safety, a kickoff-return touchdown and a last-second deflection to secure the win. While this may be a similar game with similar game-turning plays, you’d also have to checkmark New York’s offensive line compared to that of Pittsburgh, which is banged up. This game could be an instant classic but if the Jets play to their ceiling, they could return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the days of Broadway Joe. And while Rashard Mendenhall is an effective runner for the Steelers, it’s not hard to imagine LaDainian Tomlinson toting the pig like a man possessed in the fourth quarter with that kind of prize on the line.
Pick: It’s been decades, why not? – Jets by 3

NFL Divisional Playoffs

Jeff Rapp — Sat, 15 Jan 2011 21:17:00 GMT

The sentiment all NFL season has been that the AFC is far superior to the NFC, and now that we are down to just four teams on each side of the ledger it certainly appears that the American Football Conference has the marquee matchups this weekend.

The New England Patriots have ascended to the top of virtually everyone’s power rankings after an impressive stretch run and with a gaudy, NFL-best record of 14-2. They host a New York Jets squad that is as talented – and as cocky – as any entering the postseason. To prove it, the Jets just dusted off Indianapolis and quarterback extraordinare Peyton Manning.

That battle will conclude divisional play on Sunday. The first of the four games pits bitter foes Baltimore and Pittsburgh, perhaps the league’s best rivalry. This game won’t be for the meek and could be the most hard-hitting affair of the entire playoffs. The Steelers will be home and motivated but the Ravens looks like they have a few knocks left in them as well.

The NFC matchups are intriguing in their own right even though they aren’t considered as formidable. The Saturday night clash features the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons, two teams who have taken divergent paths to this point but may be as evenly matched as any. On Sunday, the Chicago Bears will try to relive their Monsters of the Midway days by trying to overpower the Seattle Seahawks, the most unlikely playoff team you will ever see.

I wrapped up Rapp’s 6-Pack a couple weeks ago with three college games and a like number from the final week of the NFL season. After that break-even showing, I had compiled the following results:

Last week’s picks: 3-3
Record for the season: 64-33-5
NCAA: 38-14-2
NFL: 26-19-3
Nailed right on the head: 3 (Packers by 4 over Vikings, Penn State by 10 over Michigan, Air Force by 7 over Georgia Tech)

This is not a 6-Pack, per se, but it’s a chance to improve on that slightly weaker NFL record in highlight games against the spread this season. Here goes:

AFC Divisional Playoffs: Ravens (13-4) at Steelers (12-4)
When: Sat., 4:30 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: Pittsburgh by 3
Analysis: It’s easy to figure out how the oddsmakers came up with this line. The last four games have been decided by a field goal and these two teams are almost mirror images of each other. The difference is supposed to be at quarterback, where Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 in this series and a more proven and dynamic performer than the Ravens’ Joe Flacco, who is still trying to move into high company. And while Pittsburgh will be at home and able to show off its terrorizing defense, I was mightily impressed with Baltimore’s shutdown of the Chiefs in Kansas City last week. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed my be getting a little long in the tooth but they still form a menacing middle of a defense, especially with fifth-year pro Haloti Ngata at nose tackle. Both teams are going to scrap, fight and presumably clutch skill players to slow them down, so the Ravens are going to need a fair shake by the referees. If they get it, I believe they will find a way to nip past the Steelers. Plus, we don’t need another week of praise to heap down on the letchy Roethlisberger, do we?
Pick: These birds still have some flap – Ravens by 3

NFC Divisional Playoffs: Packers (11-6) at Falcons (13-3)
When: Sat., 8 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Atlanta by 3
Analysis: This, as a particular muffler shop likes to say, is a toughie. Logic says to get on the Falcons’ bandwagon. Quarterback Matt Ryan is ready to blossom and the organization has learned from previous failures. Since parting ways with Michael Vick and picking up running back Michael Turner, Atlanta slowly has been building a championship contender. Roddy White is the best wide receiver in the NFL that no one talks about and Michael Jenkins keeps making the occasional play on the other side. The defense is both tough and opportunistic. However, it’s hard to discount what Green Bay has done under pressure this season, even in the close-shave loss at New England late in the season with QB Aaron Rodgers sidelined with a concussion. The Pack can hold up against quality offenses and seems to get takeaways at just the right time. And Rodgers is back humming under center now that he suddenly has a respectable running game at his disposal. This was a tight affair last time these teams met as Atlanta prevailed 20-17 at home on Nov. 28. That could serve as more of a blueprint and motivator for the visitors. I like the Cheeseheads.
Pick: Getting hot at the right time – Packers by 4

NFC Divisional Playoffs: Seahawks (8-9) at Bears (11-5)
When: Sun., 1 p.m. Eastern (FOX)
Line: Chicago by 10
Analysis: Seattle, I am impressed. Seriously. I’m not even kidding. I saw you come out aggressively against the Rams and force the issue to win the wild (OK, sorry) NFC West. Then I saw you take down the defending Super Bowl champs after a week full of punchlines at your expense. Matt Hasselbeck again led the offense with precision and the effort was there throughout. Bravo. Good for you. I’ve seen this movie before, though. No, not a team with a losing record making the playoffs and then winning a game, but a team scraping into the playoffs, being given no chance and then finding a way to win. These rides don’t last all that long, though, and the reality is that the upset-minded ’Hawks are an awful 2-6 away from home this season. Also, for all the flak that the Bears sometimes receive and for all the inconsistencies with QB Jay Cutler, Chicago is simply the better team here, especially when factoring in special teams. And, just for fun, Soldier Field is going to be frigid. Coach Pete Carroll has a way of landing jelly-up but he’s not going to have many answers if the Bears jump out early in this bad-boy.
Pick: Sorry, Petey – Bears by 17

AFC Divisional Playoffs: Jets (12-5) at Patriots (14-2)
When: Sun., 4:30 p.m. Eastern (CBS)
Line: New England by 9
Analysis: Welcome to the Gum Bowl. The Jets and their obnoxious coach can’t keep their yappers shut and the insufferable Patriots and their insufferable coach can’t wait to close them. Eventually, though, this contest will go down to New England’s finely tuned offense and homefield advantage vs. the Jets’ defensive bravado and the decision-making of heartthrob QB Mark Sanchez. It could be good theater – unless, of course, it’s another 45-3 lashing like the last time. NE’s shifty receivers, tight ends and diminutive running back Danny Woodhead carved up the vaunted Jets secondary in the last meeting and New York is going to have to make some adjustments. Also, Sanchez needs to find a way to sustain drives and keep momentum from completely siding with the Pats. The Jets have proved they can beat this team but that was way back in Week 2 of the season. For the last 10 weeks, New England has been the kingpin of the NFL.
Pick: Can’t win in Foxboro with just your mouth – Pats by 13